Prediction method of hydrodynamic forces acting on the hull of a blunt-body ship in the even keel condition

The mathematical modeling group (MMG) model is well known and is widely used in the field of ship maneuverability. However, the MMG model can be applied only after determination of the hydrodynamic coefficients either from comprehensive captive model tests or from general empirical data. Around the cruising speed, when a ship's drift angle is relatively small, several methods have been developed to predict hydrodynamic coefficients from the ship's principal particulars, e.g., Kijima's method. Kijima's method is efficient in predicting the ship's maneuverability at the initial design stage and is even able to assess the effect of changes in stern design. Similarly, for the low speed range when a ship's drift angle is relatively large, several methods for predicting the ship's hydrodynamic coefficients have been proposed, based on captive model tests, such as those by Kose, Kobayashi, and Yumuro. However, most of the methods developed for low speeds cannot be applied to general ship types without additional experiments being performed. In contrast, Karasuno's method uses theoretical and empirical approaches to predict the hydrodynamic forces, even for large drift motions. Although Karasuno's model utilizes the ship's principal particulars and is applicable to a general vessel, it has not been widely used. This is because the form of Karasuno's model is relatively complicated and its accuracy around the cruising speed is less than that for other methods that have been specifically developed for the cruising speed range. A practical method for predicting hydrodynamic forces for the entire operating speed range of blunt-body ships is proposed in this article. It is based on the MMG model and predicts hydrodynamic coefficients based on a ship's principal particulars. A regression model for the proposed method has also been proposed by analyzing 21 different blunt-body ships. Finally, simulations of a very large 4-m crude carrier (VLCC) model using the proposed method were carried out and the results compared with free-running experiments (both at the cruising speed and at low speeds) to validate the efficacy of the model.