Earth Observation for the Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disaster Management

Earthquakes pose a significant hazard, and due to the growth of vulnerable, exposed populations, global levels of seismic risk are increasing. In the past three decades, a dramatic improvement in the volume, quality and consistency of satellite observations of solid earth processes has occurred. I review the current Earth Observing (EO) systems commonly used for measuring earthquake and crustal deformation that can help constrain the potential sources of seismic hazard. I examine the various current contributions and future potential for EO data to feed into aspects of the earthquake disaster management cycle. I discuss the implications that systematic assimilation of Earth Observation data has for the future assessment of seismic hazard and secondary hazards, and the contributions it will make to earthquake disaster risk reduction. I focus on the recent applications of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and increasingly the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for the derivation of crustal deformation and these data’s contribution to estimates of hazard. I finish by examining the outlook for EO in geohazards in both science and decision-making, as well as offering some recommendations for an enhanced acquisition strategy for SAR data.

[1]  R. Langridge,et al.  Major Earthquakes Occur Regularly on an Isolated Plate Boundary Fault , 2012, Science.

[2]  S. Hreinsdóttir,et al.  Reactivated afterslip induced by a large regional earthquake, Fiordland, New Zealand , 2016 .

[3]  R. Jolivet,et al.  The Transient and Intermittent Nature of Slow Slip , 2020, AGU Advances.

[4]  Max Wyss,et al.  Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors , 1991 .

[5]  Chengquan Huang,et al.  Observations and assessment of forest carbon dynamics following disturbance in North America , 2012 .

[6]  Xiaohua Xu,et al.  Refining the shallow slip deficit , 2016 .

[7]  Ian Joughin,et al.  An automated, open-source pipeline for mass production of digital elevation models (DEMs) from very-high-resolution commercial stereo satellite imagery , 2016 .

[8]  Probing large intraplate earthquakes at the west flank of the Andes , 2014 .

[9]  J. Jackson,et al.  Active faulting within a megacity: the geometry and slip rate of the Pardisan thrust in central Tehran, Iran , 2016 .

[10]  Jerome L. Stein,et al.  Shallow Versus Deep Uncertainties in Natural Hazard Assessments , 2013 .

[11]  A. Elliott,et al.  Active Tectonics Around Almaty and along the Zailisky Alatau Rangefront , 2017 .

[12]  Michael P. Poland,et al.  Towards coordinated regional multi-satellite InSAR volcano observations: results from the Latin America pilot project , 2018, Journal of Applied Volcanology.

[13]  Mahmood Hosseini,et al.  Post-Bam earthquake: recovery and reconstruction , 2008 .

[14]  Geoffrey Blewitt,et al.  A geodetic plate motion and Global Strain Rate Model , 2014 .

[15]  Paul F. Gentle,et al.  Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand , 2017, Science.

[16]  Gareth J. Funning,et al.  Journal of Geophysical Research : Solid Earth Testing the inference of creep on the northern Rodgers Creek fault , California , using ascending and descending persistent scatterer InSAR data , 2017 .

[17]  R. Langridge,et al.  Unusual kinematics of the Papatea fault (2016 Kaikōura earthquake) suggest anelastic rupture , 2019, Science Advances.

[18]  Tom Parsons,et al.  Significance of stress transfer in time‐dependent earthquake probability calculations , 2004 .

[19]  N. Hovius,et al.  Transient changes of landslide rates after earthquakes , 2015 .

[20]  David T. Sandwell,et al.  High‐resolution interseismic velocity data along the San Andreas Fault from GPS and InSAR , 2013 .

[21]  Roger Bilham,et al.  Corruption kills , 2011, Nature.

[22]  M. Bouchon,et al.  Evidence of supershear during the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu earthquake from space geodesy , 2019, Nature Geoscience.

[23]  T. Guilderson,et al.  Linked changes in marine dissolved organic carbon molecular size and radiocarbon age , 2016 .

[24]  Milan Lazecký,et al.  LiCSBAS: An Open-Source InSAR Time Series Analysis Package Integrated with the LiCSAR Automated Sentinel-1 InSAR Processor , 2020, Remote. Sens..

[25]  Thomas Blaschke,et al.  Monitoring recovery after earthquakes through the integration of remote sensing, GIS, and ground observations: the case of L’Aquila (Italy) , 2016 .

[26]  Gavin P. Hayes,et al.  Global Earthquake Response with Imaging Geodesy: Recent Examples from the USGS NEIC , 2019, Remote. Sens..

[27]  Z. Çakır,et al.  Surface creep on the North Anatolian Fault at Ismetpasa, Turkey, 1944–2016 , 2016 .

[28]  J. Gomberg Unsettled earthquake nucleation , 2018, Nature Geoscience.

[29]  Rui Pinho,et al.  Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model’s open-source software for seismic risk assessment , 2014, Natural Hazards.

[30]  Tom Parsons,et al.  Recalculated probability of M >= 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey , 2004 .

[31]  Yasser Maghsoudi,et al.  LiCSAR: An Automatic InSAR Tool for Measuring and Monitoring Tectonic and Volcanic Activity , 2020, Remote. Sens..

[32]  Paul Segall,et al.  Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by direct measurement of strain accumulation and release , 2002, Nature.

[33]  A. Bradley,et al.  Bounding the moment deficit rate on crustal faults using geodetic data: Methods , 2017 .

[34]  Karsten Spaans,et al.  A New Method for Large-Scale Landslide Classification from Satellite Radar , 2019, Remote. Sens..

[35]  Srikanth Saripalli,et al.  Rapid mapping of ultrafine fault zone topography with structure from motion , 2014 .

[36]  J. Jackson LIVING WITH EARTHQUAKES: KNOW YOUR FAULTS , 2001 .

[37]  Sebastien Leprince,et al.  Quantifying near‐field and off‐fault deformation patterns of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake , 2015 .

[38]  R. Chant,et al.  Biogeochemical impact of summertime coastal upwelling on the New Jersey Shelf , 2004 .

[39]  T.J. Wright,et al.  The role of space-based observation in understanding and responding to active tectonics and earthquakes , 2016, Nature Communications.

[40]  Marcello de Michele,et al.  The Mw 7.9, 12 May 2008 Sichuan earthquake rupture measured by sub-pixel correlation of ALOS PALSAR amplitude images , 2010 .

[41]  J. Avouac,et al.  Seismic and Aseismic Moment Budget and Implication for the Seismic Potential of the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault , 2017 .

[42]  Yngvar Larsen,et al.  Rupture and afterslip of the 2014 South Napa earthquake reveal spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology , 2016 .

[43]  Jean-Paul Ampuero,et al.  Lower edge of locked Main Himalayan Thrust unzipped by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake , 2015 .

[44]  S. Stein,et al.  A new paradigm for large earthquakes in stable continental plate interiors , 2016 .

[45]  Zhenhong Li,et al.  Dual control of fault intersections on stop-start rupture in the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence , 2018, Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

[46]  R. Harris Large earthquakes and creeping faults , 2017 .

[47]  Scott McMichael,et al.  The Ames Stereo Pipeline: NASA's Open Source Software for Deriving and Processing Terrain Data , 2018, Earth and Space Science.

[48]  John E. Ebel,et al.  A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors , 2009 .

[49]  A. Freed EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING BY STATIC, DYNAMIC, AND POSTSEISMIC STRESS TRANSFER , 2005 .

[50]  Bruce D. Malamud,et al.  A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships , 2019, Earth-Science Reviews.

[51]  Ryan Lloyd,et al.  Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault , 2018, Nature Communications.

[52]  Kenneth W. Hudnut,et al.  Rapid Damage Mapping for the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Data from COSMO–SkyMed and ALOS-2 Satellites , 2015 .

[53]  Manoochehr Shirzaei,et al.  Time‐dependent model of creep on the Hayward fault from joint inversion of 18 years of InSAR and surface creep data , 2013 .

[54]  Subhamoy Bhattacharya,et al.  A critical review of retrofitting methods for unreinforced masonry structures , 2014 .

[55]  Timothy E. Dawson,et al.  Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) , 2015 .

[56]  D. Melgar,et al.  Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete , 2019, Science Advances.

[57]  Yngvar Larsen,et al.  Spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology from rupture and afterslip of the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake , 2016 .

[58]  T. Farr,et al.  Shuttle radar topography mission produces a wealth of data , 2000 .

[59]  The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates , 2019, Solid Earth.

[60]  R. Langridge,et al.  Maximum‐Likelihood Recurrence Parameters and Conditional Probability of a Ground‐Rupturing Earthquake on the Southern Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand , 2015 .

[61]  Sarah Asam,et al.  Firebird― Small Satellites for Wild Fire Assessment , 2018, IGARSS 2018 - 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium.

[62]  Tamsin A. Mather,et al.  Applicability of InSAR to tropical volcanoes: insights from Central America , 2013 .

[63]  James H. Dieterich,et al.  Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering , 1997 .

[64]  Jim Gower Jason 1 detects the 26 December 2004 tsunami , 2005 .

[65]  Marie-Pierre Doin,et al.  Spatio-temporal evolution of aseismic slip along the Haiyuan fault, China: Implications for fault frictional properties , 2013 .

[66]  Andrea Monti Guarnieri,et al.  Potential atmospheric and terrestrial aplications of a geosynchronous radar , 2014, 2014 IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium.

[67]  Christopher H. Scholz,et al.  Large Earthquake Triggering, Clustering, and the Synchronization of Faults , 2010 .

[68]  Andrew J. Michael,et al.  Operational Earthquake Forecasting Can Enhance Earthquake Preparedness , 2014 .

[69]  S. Stein,et al.  Active tectonics, earthquakes and palaeoseismicity in slowly deforming continents , 2016, Special Publications.

[70]  Pietro Milillo,et al.  An aseismic slip transient on the North Anatolian Fault , 2016 .

[71]  H. Hébert,et al.  On the use of satellite altimetry to infer the earthquake rupture characteristics: Application to the 2004 Sumatra event , 2008 .

[72]  Stephen B. DeLong,et al.  Rates and patterns of surface deformation from laser scanning following the South Napa earthquake, California , 2015 .

[73]  Gavin P. Hayes,et al.  The July 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence: Kinematics of Slip and Stressing in Cross‐Fault Ruptures , 2019, Geophysical Research Letters.

[74]  John R. Elliott,et al.  Assessing the ability of Pleiades stereo imagery to determine height changes in earthquakes: A case study for the El Mayor‐Cucapah epicentral area , 2014 .

[75]  Sang-Hoon Hong,et al.  Transpressional rupture of an unmapped fault during the 2010 Haiti earthquake , 2010 .

[76]  P. Strobl,et al.  Benefits of the free and open Landsat data policy , 2019, Remote Sensing of Environment.

[77]  Malcolm Davidson,et al.  SENTINEL-1 MISSION CAPABILITIES , 2010 .

[78]  C. A. Evans,et al.  Data Collection for Disaster Response from the International Space Station , 2015 .

[79]  J. Avouac,et al.  Himalayan megathrust geometry and relation to topography revealed by the Gorkha earthquake , 2016 .

[80]  B. E. Shaw,et al.  Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model , 2014 .

[81]  Nadia Lapusta,et al.  Towards inferring earthquake patterns from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling , 2010 .

[82]  V. Silva,et al.  Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources , 2020 .

[83]  Laura M. Wallace,et al.  Large-scale dynamic triggering of shallow slow slip enhanced by overlying sedimentary wedge , 2017 .

[84]  Richard Styron,et al.  Database of Active Structures From the Indo‐Asian Collision , 2010 .

[85]  M. Stein,et al.  Long-term earthquake clustering: A 50,000-year paleoseismic record in the Dead Sea Graben , 1996 .

[86]  C. Kreemer,et al.  GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model Constructed from Geodetic Strain Rates and Smoothed Seismicity , 2015 .

[87]  John D. Evans,et al.  Improving Disaster Management Using Earth Observations—GEOSS and CEOS Activities , 2013, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing.

[88]  James Jackson,et al.  Fatal attraction: living with earthquakes, the growth of villages into megacities, and earthquake vulnerability in the modern world , 2006, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[89]  C. Kreemer,et al.  Erratum to Revised Tectonic Forecast of Global Shallow Seismicity Based on Version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate Map , 2015 .

[90]  M. R. Yoder,et al.  Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake , 2016, Science.

[91]  J. Avouac,et al.  A Geodesy‐ and Seismicity‐Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles , 2019, Geophysical Research Letters.

[92]  B. Roos,et al.  A new method for large-scale Cl calculations , 1972 .

[93]  C. Kreemer,et al.  Revised Tectonic Forecast of Global Shallow Seismicity Based on Version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate MapRevised Tectonic Forecast of Global Shallow Seismicity Based on Version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate Map , 2015 .

[94]  L. Peek,et al.  Disaster-zone research needs a code of conduct , 2019, Nature.

[95]  Zhen Liu,et al.  Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California , 2005 .

[96]  Richard M. Allen,et al.  Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Earthquake Early Warning : Advances , Scientific Challenges , and Societal Needs , 2019 .

[97]  K. Mochizuki,et al.  Slow slip near the trench at the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand , 2016, Science.

[98]  Xi-wei Xu,et al.  Width Distribution of the Surface Ruptures Associated with the Wenchuan Earthquake: Implication for the Setback Zone of the Seismogenic Faults in Postquake Reconstruction , 2010 .

[99]  Bernie Mulgrew,et al.  IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium , 2015 .

[100]  Jean-Paul Ampuero,et al.  A Geostationary Optical Seismometer, Proof of Concept , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[101]  P. Bird,et al.  Improving deformation models by discounting transient signals in geodetic data: 1. Concept and synthetic examples , 2016 .

[102]  James Jackson,et al.  Slip in the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand , 2012 .

[103]  James F. Dolan,et al.  Surface slip and off‐fault deformation patterns in the 2013 MW 7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake: Implications for controls on the distribution of near‐surface coseismic slip , 2014 .