Simulation model of Rhyzopertha dominica population dynamics in concrete grain bins

Rhyzopertha dominica is one of the most damaging insect pests in grain elevators and causes millions of dollars worth of stored grain losses annually in the USA. A simulation model was developed for predicting R. dominica population dynamics in concrete grain bins. The model used a two-dimensional representation of a cylindrical concrete bin (33 m tall 6.4 m wide), and used hourly weather data to predict changes in grain temperature. Output from the grain bin temperature and moisture module was used by the insect module to predict changes in insect density in 32 different bin regions. When compared to validation data from nine grain bins, the model accurately predicted insect vertical distribution and insect density. In December, the highest insect density was in the top center of the grain mass, and decreased steadily with increasing depth and towards the periphery of the grain mass. R. dominica attains this spatial distribution because immigration is primarily through the top of the bin, and higher populations occur in the interior of the grain mass because of warmer temperatures there. Initially, the model underestimated actual insect density in the grain bins. We increased the immigration rate by 50% and this resulted in a much better prediction of R. dominica density by the model. From 20 September to 14 December, populations of R. dominica increased from 0.1 to 3.5 insects per kg of wheat. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.