Testing of a predictive risk index for persistent postsurgical pain on patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND We investigated whether a universal predictive risk index for persistent postsurgical pain (PPP) is applicable to patients who undergo total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS In this cohort study, 392 participants of a randomized study investigating the effects of anaesthesia methods and tourniquet use on TKA were divided into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for PPP, as suggested in the previous risk index study. Patients reported pain using the Oxford Knee Score pain subscale and Brief Pain Inventory-short form preoperatively and 3 and 12 months postoperatively. We compared the pain scores of the low- to moderate- and high-risk groups at respective time points and investigated changes in pain scores and the prevalence of PPP at 3 and 12 months after surgery. RESULTS The high-risk group reported more pain 3 and 12 months after TKA than the low- to moderate-risk group. However, of seven variables, only a single difference reached the threshold for minimal clinical importance between the groups at 12 months. Additionally, at 12 months, the low- to moderate-risk group reported slightly worse improvements in three of seven pain variables than the high-risk group. Depending on the definition, the prevalence of PPP ranged from 2% to 29% in the low- to moderate-risk group and 4% to 41% in the high-risk group 12 months postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS Although the investigated risk index might predict clinically important differences in PPP between the risk groups at 3 months after TKA, it seems poorly applicable for predicting PPP at 12 months after TKA. SIGNIFICANCE Although many risk factors for persistent postsurgical pain after total knee arthroplasty have been identified, predicting the risk of this pain has remained a challenge. Results of the current study suggest that accumulation of previously presented modifiable risk factors might be associated with increased postsurgical pain at 3 months, but not at 12 months after total knee arthroplasty.