Hybrid Evolutionary Neuro-fuzzy Computational Tool to Forecast Wind Power and Electricity Prices

The intermittence of the renewable sources due to its unpredictability increases the instability of the actual grid and energy supply. Besides, in a deregulated and competitive framework, producers and consumers require short-term forecasting tools to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. This paper proposes a novel hybrid computational tool, based on a combination of evolutionary particle swarm optimization with an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for wind power forecasting and electricity prices forecasting in the short-term. The results from two real-world case studies are presented, in order to illustrate the proficiency of the proposed computational tool.

[1]  Zuyi Li,et al.  Market Operations in Electric Power Systems : Forecasting, Scheduling, and Risk Management , 2002 .

[2]  J. Contreras,et al.  Forecasting next-day electricity prices by time series models , 2002 .

[3]  U. Focken,et al.  Predicting the Wind , 2007, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[4]  N. Amjady,et al.  Day-Ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by Mutual Information Technique and Cascaded Neuro-Evolutionary Algorithm , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[5]  Salman Mohagheghi,et al.  Particle Swarm Optimization: Basic Concepts, Variants and Applications in Power Systems , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation.

[6]  John Kabouris,et al.  Impacts of Large-Scale Wind Penetration on Designing and Operation of Electric Power Systems , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[7]  Joao P. S. Catalao,et al.  A hybrid PSO–ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal , 2011 .

[8]  Zhang Yan,et al.  A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power , 2009 .

[9]  Ashwani Kumar,et al.  Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets: A review and evaluation , 2009 .

[10]  J. Contreras,et al.  Forecasting Next-Day Electricity Prices by Time Series Models , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[11]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction , 2008 .

[12]  Zhou Quan,et al.  RBF Neural Network and ANFIS-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting Approach in Real-Time Price Environment , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[13]  Vladimiro Miranda,et al.  EPSO - best-of-two-worlds meta-heuristic applied to power system problems , 2002, Proceedings of the 2002 Congress on Evolutionary Computation. CEC'02 (Cat. No.02TH8600).

[14]  Joao P. S. Catalao,et al.  Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform , 2011 .

[15]  V. Miranda Evolutionary Algorithms with Particle Swarm Movements , 2005, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on, Intelligent Systems Application to Power Systems.

[16]  I. Erlich,et al.  European Balancing Act , 2007, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[17]  J. Ramos,et al.  Electricity Market Price Forecasting Based on Weighted Nearest Neighbors Techniques , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[18]  H. M. I. Pousinho,et al.  An Artificial Neural Network Approach for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Portugal , 2009, 2009 15th International Conference on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems.

[19]  C. Rodriguez,et al.  Energy price forecasting in the Ontario competitive power system market , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[20]  N. Pindoriya,et al.  An Adaptive Wavelet Neural Network-Based Energy Price Forecasting in Electricity Markets , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[21]  A.J. Conejo,et al.  Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[22]  Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado,et al.  Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems , 2009 .