DRIFTING APART: OLD AND NEW CLEAVAGES IN LATIN AMERICA

In the last two decades, Latin America has undergone wide-ranging social and political transformations. However, the deep and nature of such transformations is frequently exaggerated, or misunderstood. In this paper, I argue that continuity has been as significant as transformation. I discuss three main features of continuity (nationalism, populism, and an economic structure based on commodity exports) and three of change (democracy, the political mobilization of ethnic identities, and the increasingly disparate strategies of global insertion). I conclude by arguing that the region is heading towards growing divergence and fragmentation rather than convergence and integration. This text was prepared for delivery at the International Conference, “Election Year 2006: Latin America at the Crossroads (Again)?” University of Economics, Prague, November 23, 2007. I am extremely grateful to Alexandra Barahona de Brito for comments.