Estimation of Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Models using Limited Information

This work deals with the problem of estimating a photovoltaic generation forecasting model in scenarios where measurements of meteorological variables (i.e. solar irradiance and temperature) at the plant site are not available. A novel algorithm for the estimation of the parameters of the well-known PVUSA model of a photovoltaic plant is proposed. Such a method is characterized by a low computational complexity, and efficiently exploits only power generation measurements, a theoretical clear-sky irradiance model, and temperature forecasts provided by a meteorological service. An extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on real data is also presented.

[1]  G. G. Stokes.  "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[2]  Mukund Patel,et al.  Wind and Solar Power SystemsDesign, Analysis, and Operation , 2006 .

[3]  K. Kimura,et al.  Solar radiation on cloudy days , 1969 .

[4]  M. Diagne,et al.  Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids , 2013 .

[5]  Jan Kleissl,et al.  Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment , 2013 .

[6]  Kwa-Sur Tam,et al.  New and improved methods to estimate day-ahead quantity and quality of solar irradiance , 2015 .

[7]  C Strati,et al.  First Correlations for Solar Radiation on Cloudy Days in Italy , 2010 .

[8]  Hans-Georg Beyer,et al.  Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems , 2009, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing.

[9]  Farrokh Albuyeh,et al.  Grid of the future , 2009, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine.

[10]  Didier Thevenard,et al.  Monthly average clear-sky broadband irradiance database for worldwide solar heat gain and building cooling load calculations , 2009 .

[11]  Antonio Vicino,et al.  Estimation of a simple model of solar power generation using partial information , 2013, 52nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.

[12]  Giacomo Capizzi,et al.  Innovative Second-Generation Wavelets Construction With Recurrent Neural Networks for Solar Radiation Forecasting , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems.

[13]  T. Hoff,et al.  Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US , 2010 .

[14]  Claudia Biermann.  Applied Solar Energy An Introduction , 2016 .

[15]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Online short-term solar power forecasting , 2009 .

[16]  Antonio Vicino,et al.  Estimating PV forecasting models from power data , 2018, 2018 IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON).

[17]  J. Kleissl,et al.  Chapter 8 – Overview of Solar-Forecasting Methods and a Metric for Accuracy Evaluation , 2013 .

[18]  R. Inman,et al.  Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration , 2013 .

[19]  Richard Perez,et al.  Forecasting solar radiation – Preliminary evaluation of an approach based upon the national forecast database , 2007 .

[20]  P. Denholm,et al.  Evaluating the Limits of Solar Photovoltaics (PV) in Traditional Electric Power Systems , 2007 .

[21]  C. K. Chan,et al.  Prediction of hourly solar radiation using a novel hybrid model of ARMA and TDNN , 2011 .

[22]  M Malvoni,et al.  Data on photovoltaic power forecasting models for Mediterranean climate , 2016, Data in brief.

[23]  Antonio Vicino,et al.  Model Estimation for Solar Generation Forecasting using Cloud Cover Data , 2017, ArXiv.

[24]  E. Ricci,et al.  Exploiting dimensionality reduction techniques for photovoltaic power forecasting , 2012, 2012 IEEE International Energy Conference and Exhibition (ENERGYCON).

[25]  P. Ineichen.  Comparison of eight clear sky broadband models against 16 independent data banks , 2006 .

[26]  Antonio Vicino,et al.  Model estimation of photovoltaic power generation using partial information , 2013, IEEE PES ISGT Europe 2013.

[27]  H. HEYWOOD.  Applied Solar Energy , 1956, Nature.

[28]  Chen Changsong,et al.  Forecasting power output for grid-connected photovoltaic power system without using solar radiation measurement , 2010, The 2nd International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems.

[29]  Antonio Luque,et al.  Handbook of photovoltaic science and engineering , 2011 .

[30]  OrtegaRomeo,et al.  A survey on modeling of microgrids-From fundamental physics to phasors and voltage sources , 2016 .

[31]  W. Chow,et al.  Solar radiation model , 2001 .

[32]  Clifford W. Hansen,et al.  Identification of periods of clear sky irradiance in time series of GHI measurements , 2016 .

[33]  Takayuki Ishizaki,et al.  Interval quadratic programming for day-ahead dispatch of uncertain predicted demand , 2016, Autom..

[34]  E. J. Gough,et al.  PVUSA procurement, acceptance, and rating practices for photovoltaic power plants , 1995 .

[35]  Simone Peronaci,et al.  Solar Radiation Forecast Using Neural Networks for the Prediction of Grid Connected PV Plants Energy Production (DSP Project) , 2013 .

[36]  Kevin L. Moore,et al.  Distributed coordination and control of multiple photovoltaic generators for power distribution in a microgrid , 2016, Autom..

[37]  Gordon Reikard.  Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of time series forecasts , 2009 .

[38]  Paul Denholm,et al.  Evaluating the limits of solar photovoltaics (PV) in electric power systems utilizing energy storage and other enabling technologies , 2007 .

[39]  Gerhard Czeplak,et al.  Solar and terrestrial radiation dependent on the amount and type of cloud , 1980 .