Mining Patent Big Data to Forecast Enterprise Performance

With intellectual assets are more important, the enterprise pay higher attention. And the patent is an important indicator to measure the R&D results of the company. As China gradually became the leading national competition, this study will be based on Chinese listed companies for the study. Using Granger causality test to identify which patents indicators has a leading enterprise performance. Based on the difficulty of data collection, the study is only with four patent indicators and three enterprise performance indicators for verification of indicators. Patent index are including patent growth rate, patent approval rate, patent number and patent activities and enterprise performance index are net profit, return on assets (ROA) and return on net worth (ROE). Results from this study show that patents leading indicator of different industries have a great deal of difference, which also similar situations and economic leading indicator, therefore, the study recommends more industrial application of different patents leading indicator.

[1]  F. Scherer,et al.  Patent Statistics as a Measure of Technical Change , 1969, Journal of Political Economy.

[2]  Jacob Schmookler,et al.  Invention and Economic Growth , 1967 .

[3]  Holger Ernst,et al.  Patent information for strategic technology management , 2003 .

[4]  Z. Griliches,et al.  Citations, Family Size, Opposition and the Value of Patent Rights Have Profited from Comments and Suggestions , 2002 .

[5]  C. Granger.  Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods , 1969 .

[6]  Frederic M. Scherer,et al.  Corporate Inventive Output, Profits, and Growth , 1965, Journal of Political Economy.

[7]  Reinhilde Veugelers,et al.  In Search of Performance Effects of (In)Direct Industry Science Links , 2008 .

[8]  Bronwyn H Hall,et al.  Market value and patent citations , 2005 .

[9]  Arvids A. Ziedonis,et al.  Changes in university patent quality after the Bayh-Dole act: a re-examination , 2003 .

[10]  Ashish Arora,et al.  The Value of International Patent Rights , 2001 .

[11]  Yi-Hsuan Lai,et al.  Modeling patent legal value by Extension Neural Network , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[12]  Arvids A. Ziedonis,et al.  The growth of patenting and licensing by U.S. universities: an assessment of the effects of the Bayh–Dole act of 1980 , 2001 .

[13]  Ariel Pakes,et al.  Estimates of the Value of Patent Rights in European Countries During Thepost-1950 Period , 1985 .

[14]  Patrick Thomas,et al.  A relationship between technology indicators and stock market performance , 2001, Scientometrics.

[15]  L. Nakamura.  Investing in intangibles: is a trillion dollars missing from the GDP? , 2001 .

[16]  Jerry R. Green,et al.  On the Division of Profit in Sequential Innovation , 1995 .

[17]  Rebecca Henderson,et al.  Sources of Industrial Leadership: The Pharmaceutical Industry and the Revolution in Molecular Biology: Interactions Among Scientific, Institutional, and Organizational Change , 1999 .