How to reduce US automobile greenhouse gas emissions

This paper presents an analysis of alternative policies and measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US light-duty vehicle sector to specified levels by 2010 and beyond (to 2030). Although the Kyoto treaty does not require specific reductions in each sector, the authors consider the likelihood that light-duty vehicles can “pull their weight” relative to other sectors. The authors use economic relationships between fuel prices, travel, and vehicle fuel economy to estimate the effect of different GHG policies. The estimated GHG savings from a number of travel-related and vehicle-related policies are compared to reductions that would be needed in order to achieve Kyoto-type reductions in the sector by 2010. The authors find that, apart from an unrealistically large increase in fuel taxes, no single policy appears likely to be capable of achieving the target reductions by 2010, although certain combinations of policies may be able to achieve the targets. However, if the time frame is extended out to 2030, certain technology-oriented policies appear quite promising for achieving large GHG reductions.