Measuring the validity and performance of energy models

Abstract This paper is concerned with approaches to validating and judging the performance of energy models. There has been a proliferation of models of all sorts. These models not only attempt to deal with many different aspects of industry and market behaviour but also involve widely different modelling methodologies. Several attempts have been made to classify and to evaluate these methodological approaches; they are not repeated here. Rather this paper focuses on criteria for determining the validity of a model that are quantitative and hopefully rigorous. Different validation criteria are suggested for econometric time-series models, models, and mathematical programming models. Finally, an appeal is made for including validation measures in future energy modelling studies.

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