Annual Earthquake Potential Consultation: A Real Forward Prediction Test in China

The Chinese seismologists have conducted the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes in the Next Year as a real forward prediction test for over four decades since the 1970s. This approach has unique scientific and practical merits either as an active response to the social needs for mitigation of seismic disaster while the earthquake prediction remains to be a challenging problem scientifically. This chapter summarizes the National Annual Consultation from the 1970s to the present, its scientific outputs, methodology used for analysis, and in-depth philosophy guiding the Consultation and proposed further developments and improvements. Two case studies after the 2008 M8 Wenchuan earthquake were shown in this chapter.

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