Comparison of delphi forecasting studies in 1964 and 1969

Abstract The Institute for the Future recently completed a Delphi study that considered prospective developments in physical and biological technologies. 1 Because many of the forecasts were made for events and developments that were considered in a study five years earlier, 2 a comparison of the two studies provides an opportunity to observe the effect of the passage of time on forecasts. Such a review also makes it possible to develop some data on the consistency and performance of different panels.