Strategic foresight and environmental uncertainty: a research agenda

Purpose – The main purpose of this article is to promote further systematic inquiry into the field of strategic foresight. It carefully aims to re‐examine the notion of environmental uncertainty, the main theoretical approaches advanced by literature on strategy to cope with uncertainty, and foresight activities in corporate organizations.Design/methodology/approach – This article is theoretical in nature. However, its insights are significantly based on empirical analysis: the author has been involved in the past ten years in in‐depth investigation of foresight practices in several international firms of different industries.Findings – Several important issues and research questions on strategic foresight have remained largely unresolved from both an academic and managerial perspective. This paper outlines such questions.Originality/value – The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it links the work on strategic foresight to a wide range of related literature streams, thus revealing new connectio...

[1]  K. Eisenhardt,et al.  Strategy as simple rules. , 2001, Harvard business review.

[2]  R. Duncan.  Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty. , 1972 .

[3]  Lutz E. Schlange.  Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[4]  George Wright,et al.  The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios , 2002 .

[5]  Aubrey L. Mendelow,et al.  Real Options as Engines of Choice and Heterogeneity , 2004 .

[6]  James F. Fairbank,et al.  Managing Uncertainty in a Formal Standards-Based Industry: A Real Options Perspective on Acquisition Timing , 2006 .

[7]  Charles W. Hofer,et al.  Strategy formulation : analytical concepts , 1978 .

[8]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty , 2012, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[9]  P. Lawrence,et al.  Organization and environment , 1967 .

[10]  Bertrand Quelin,et al.  Real Options and Strategic Investment Decisions: Can They Be of Use to Scholars? , 2010 .

[11]  Cornelia Daheim,et al.  Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight , 2008, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[12]  C. Prahalad,et al.  Competing for the Future , 1994 .

[13]  John Ratcliffe,et al.  Scenario planning: strategic interviews and conversations , 2002 .

[14]  Peter Schwartz,et al.  The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World , 1996 .

[15]  Lenos Trigeorgis,et al.  Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games , 2004 .

[16]  R. Vecchiato,et al.  Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: the case of some Italian districts , 2008 .

[17]  D. B. Montgomery,et al.  First‐mover advantages , 1988 .

[18]  James D. Thompson.  Organizations in Action , 1967 .

[19]  Steven C. Wheelwright,et al.  Forecasting methods and applications. , 1979 .

[20]  Renée Mauborgne,et al.  Blue ocean strategy. , 2004, Harvard business review.

[21]  W. Dill.  Environment as an Influence on Managerial Autonomy , 1958 .

[22]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change , 2010 .

[23]  D. Teece.  Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance , 2007 .

[24]  Paul J. H. Schoemaker,et al.  Profiting from uncertainty : strategies for succeeding no matter what the future brings , 2002 .

[25]  D. Teece,et al.  DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT , 1997 .

[26]  Kathleen M. Eisenhardt,et al.  DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES, WHAT ARE THEY? , 2000 .

[27]  L. Trigeorgis.  Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation , 1996 .

[28]  P. Schoemaker.  MULTIPLE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: ITS CONCEPTUAL AND BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION , 1993 .

[29]  C. Prahalad,et al.  To revitalize corporate performance, we need a whole new model of strategy. Strategic intent. , 1989, Harvard business review.

[30]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study. , 2012 .

[31]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Investment Under Uncertainty. , 1994 .

[32]  G. Hamel.  Leading the Revolution , 2000 .

[33]  Frances J. Milliken.  Three Types of Perceived Uncertainty About the Environment: State, Effect, and Response Uncertainty , 1987 .

[34]  George Wright,et al.  The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning , 2005 .

[35]  J. McCann.  Strategies for Change: Logical Incrementalism , 1980 .

[36]  Joseph Voros,et al.  An integral approach , 2003 .

[37]  D. Hambrick.  Environmental scanning and organizational strategy , 1982 .

[38]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Foresight in corporate organisations , 2010, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[39]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13-14, 2004 , 2005 .

[40]  Joseph F. Coates,et al.  Strategic Foresight Issue: Introduction☆ , 2010 .

[41]  R. Grant.  Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: evidence from the oil majors , 2003 .

[42]  S. Cunningham,et al.  Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods , 2004 .

[43]  H. Ansoff,et al.  Critique of Henry Mintzberg's ‘The design school: Reconsidering the basic premises of strategic management’ , 1991 .

[44]  M. Öner,et al.  An integrated view of foresight: integrated foresight management model , 2003 .

[45]  Robert E. Linneman,et al.  The use of multiple scenarios by U.S. industrial companies: A comparison study, 1977–1981☆ , 1983 .

[46]  Alexander Fink,et al.  How scenarios support strategic early warning processes , 2004 .

[47]  M. Atilla Öner,et al.  Pitfalls in and success factors of corporate foresight projects , 2007 .

[48]  Curtin Ll,et al.  Learning for the future? , 1994 .

[49]  C. Galbraith,et al.  The Politics of Forecasting: Managing the Truth , 1996 .

[50]  Ronald N. Kostoff,et al.  Science and technology roadmaps , 2001, IEEE Trans. Engineering Management.

[51]  Robert Phaal,et al.  Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution , 2004 .

[52]  Henry Mintzberg.  The design school: Reconsidering the basic premises of strategic management , 1990 .

[53]  Nalin Kulatilaka,et al.  Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World , 1998 .

[54]  Joseph Voros,et al.  A generic foresight process framework , 2003 .

[55]  Nicholas Dew,et al.  What to Do Next? The Case for Non-Predictive Strategy , 2006 .

[56]  Arie P. de Geus,et al.  The Living Company , 1997 .

[57]  Michael T. Pich,et al.  Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos , 2002, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[58]  Hugh Courtney,et al.  20/20 foresight : crafting strategy in an uncertain world , 2001 .

[59]  P. Drucker.  The new society of organizations. , 1992, Harvard business review.

[60]  D. Ingvar.  "Memory of the future": an essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. , 1985, Human neurobiology.

[61]  Campbell R. Harvey,et al.  The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field , 1999 .

[62]  H. Leland..  Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure , 1998 .

[63]  B. Twiss.  Managing Technological Innovation , 1974 .

[64]  S. Sarasvathy.  Causation and Effectuation: Toward a Theoretical Shift from Economic Inevitability to Entrepreneurial Contingency , 2001 .

[65]  Pentti Malaska,et al.  Multiple Scenario Approach and Strategic Behaviour in European Companies , 1985 .