Modeling Traffic Flow Under Emergency Evacuation Situations: Current Practice and Future Directions

The use of evacuation operations in response to emergency conditions has become commonplace. Until recently, planning and response operations have largely been the concern of emergency management personnel. The reoccurrence of catastrophic events, however, has transportation officials becoming increasingly interested in working to improve evacuation efficiency. Emergency managers and transportation officials have employed the use of traffic simulation software to aid in evacuation planning and to evaluate evacuation operations. Effective emergency simulation software needs to be able to capture the major factors influencing evacuation response. This paper aims to discuss the broad role of transportation and the use of traffic simulation in response to various aspects of emergency conditions. Evacuation-specific simulation software packages OREMS, DYNEV, and ETIS are presented in detail, providing insight as to how each deals with influencing factors of response to an emergency. The detail also offers a means of cross-comparison for model use under these conditions. Several enhancements are identified and proposed to address special circumstances that may greatly impact evacuation operations. The ultimate goal of these enhancements is to improve the state of the art and practice in traffic simulation modeling so that such models more accurately represent conditions and behaviors during emergency situations, thus improving evacuation planning and increasing evacuation operation efficiency.

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