Development and evaluation of a multiple-pest, production situation specific model to simulate yield losses of rice in tropical Asia

A yield loss simulation model for rice was developed to simulate injury mechanisms due to pathogens, insects, and weeds, and the yield losses they cause in a range of production situations. The structure of the model is simple, flexible, and involves as few parameters as possible. The model consists of two linked components. The first simulates the dynamics of the rice crop, with accumulation of biomass and its daily partitioning towards leaves, stems, roots, and panicles. The second component simulates the dynamics of tillering, tiller maturation, panicle formation, and tiller death. Coupling functions representing damage mechanisms due to sheath blight, stem borers, and weeds were developed and parameterized from published and experimental data. Each of these injuries corresponds to a set of damage mechanisms, some of which are specific to the injury considered, while others are common to several injuries. The parameters required to simulate attainable growth and attainable yield were determined, using specific field experiments, under three different production situations representing those commonly occurring in the Philippines and in Vietnam. Yield loss simulations due to the different injuries, considered alone or in combination, were tested under these different production situations. The model accurately simulated attainable rice growth and development, and adequately accounted for the yield-reducing effects of the different injury mechanisms considered. Results from sensitivity analyses conducted at varying levels of injuries are discussed. This model can be used as a tool to set research priorities for novel plant protection strategies for rice in tropical Asia.

[1]  R. T. Cruz,et al.  Response of leaf water potential, stomatal resistance, and leaf rolling to water stress. , 1980, Plant physiology.

[2]  J. Cock,et al.  Laboratory manual for physiological studies of rice , 1971 .

[3]  T. R. Migo,et al.  Understanding crop-weed interaction in field situations. , 1993 .

[4]  William D. Batchelor,et al.  Simulation of multiple species pest damage in rice using CERES-rice , 1995 .

[5]  H. van Keulen,et al.  A summary model for crop growth , 1982 .

[6]  M. Wopereis,et al.  Quantifying the impact of soil and climate variability on rainfed rice production , 1993 .

[7]  P. Teng Integrated Pest Management in Rice , 1994, Experimental Agriculture.

[8]  H. H. Laar,et al.  ORYZA 1 : an ecophysiological model for irrigated rice production , 1994 .

[9]  R. Rabbinge,et al.  Modelling the effects of foliar pests and pathogens on light interception, photosynthesis, growth rate and yield of field crops , 1990 .

[10]  Martin J. Kropff,et al.  Modelling Crop-Weed Interactions , 1993 .

[11]  P. Teng,et al.  Characterization of rice pest constraints in Asia: an empirical approach , 1997 .

[12]  H. Berge,et al.  Simulation of Ecophysiological Processes of Growth in Several Annual Crops , 1989 .

[13]  Paul Teng,et al.  The challenge of linking pest and crop models , 1995 .

[14]  Neil C. Turner,et al.  Responses of seven diverse rice cultivars to water deficits I. Stress development, canopy temperature, leaf rolling and growth , 1986 .

[15]  B. Graf,et al.  A simulation model for the dynamics of rice growth and development: Part II—The competition with weeds for nitrogen and light , 1990 .

[16]  L. Bastiaans,et al.  Understanding yield reduction in rice due to leaf blast , 1993 .

[17]  Kenneth B. Johnson Evaluation of a mechanistic model that describes potato crop losses caused by multiple pests , 1992 .

[18]  Liangzhi Gao,et al.  Rice clock model―a computer model to simulate rice development , 1992 .

[19]  Joan Marsh,et al.  Crop protection and sustainable agriculture , 1993 .

[20]  M. Dingkuhn,et al.  Nitrogen fertilization of direct-seeded flooded vs. transplanted rice. I, Nitrogen uptake, photosynthesis, growth, and yield , 1990 .

[21]  W.A.H. Rossing,et al.  Opportunities for using systems approaches in pest management. , 1997 .

[22]  P. Teng,et al.  Analysis of potato foliage losses caused by interacting infestations of early blight, Verticillium wilt, and potato leafhopper, and the relationship to yield , 1987 .

[23]  G. Hoogenboom,et al.  Understanding Options for Agricultural Production , 1998, Systems Approaches for Sustainable Agricultural Development.

[24]  J. O’toole,et al.  Water Deficits and Mineral Uptake in Rice 1 , 1982 .

[25]  K. Hayashi,et al.  Studies on the Form of Plant in Rice Varieties with Particular Reference to the Efficiency in Utilizing Sunlight. : I. The significance of extinction coefficient in rice plant communities. , 1962 .

[26]  K. Moody,et al.  Effect of Plant Spacing on the Competitive Ability of Rice Growing in Association with Various Weed Communities at Different Nitrogen Levels , 1980 .

[27]  K. Moody,et al.  Competition between Echinochloa glabrescens and rice (Oryza sativa) , 1992 .

[28]  Z. Islam,et al.  Whiteheads associated with stem borer infestation in modern rice varieties: an attempt to resolve the dilemma of yield losses , 1997 .

[29]  F.W.T. Penning de Vries,et al.  L'analyse des systemes de production primaire , 1982 .

[30]  P. Teng,et al.  Rice Pest Constraints in Tropical Asia: Characterization of Injury Profiles in Relation to Production Situations. , 2000, Plant disease.

[31]  P. Teng,et al.  Assessing the Representativeness of Data on Yield Losses Due to Rice Diseases in Tropical Asia. , 1998, Plant disease.

[32]  F. H. Rijsdijk,et al.  Disease and crop physiology: a modeller's point of view , 1982 .

[33]  A. Elings,et al.  Analysis of damage mechanisms by pests and diseases and their effects on rice yield : [proceedings of the SARP application workshop, held at the International Rice Research Institute, 18 April to 6 May 1994] , 1994 .

[34]  M. Dingkuhn Modelling concepts for the phenotypic plasticity of dry matter and nitrogen partitioning in rice , 1996 .

[35]  M. Dingkuhn,et al.  Relationships between ripening-phase productivity and crop duration, canopy photosynthesis and senescence in transplanted and direct-seeded lowland rice , 1991 .

[36]  W. D. Batchelor,et al.  Simulation of pest effects on crops using coupled pest-crop models: the potential for decision support , 1998 .

[37]  K. T. Ingram,et al.  Stem borer damage and grain yield of flooded rice. , 1989 .

[38]  P. Teng,et al.  Characterization of rice cropping practices and multiple pest systems in the Philippines , 1994 .

[39]  C. G. McLaren,et al.  Direct and indirect effects of nitrogen supply and disease source structure on rice sheath blight spread , 1995 .

[40]  J. Monteith Climate and the efficiency of crop production in Britain , 1977 .

[41]  K. Boote,et al.  Coupling Pests to Crop Growth Simulators to Predict Yield Reductions , 1983 .

[42]  P. Ayres Effects of disease on the physiology of the growing plant. , 1981 .

[43]  Derek Poate A Review of Methods for Measuring Crop Production from Smallholder Producers , 1988, Experimental Agriculture.

[44]  M. Dingkuhn,et al.  Nitrogen economy and canopy carbon dioxide assimilation of tropical lowland rice. , 1990 .

[45]  F.W.T. Penning de Vries,et al.  Simulation of plant growth and crop production. , 1983 .

[46]  P. Ayres Pests and pathogens : plant responses to foliar attack , 1992 .

[47]  P. Teng,et al.  Rice Pest Constraints in Tropical Asia: Quantification of Yield Losses Due to Rice Pests in a Range of Production Situations , 2002 .

[48]  S. Fukai,et al.  Growth and yield of rice cultivars under sprinkler irrigation in south-eastern Queensland. 2. Comparison with maize and grain sorghum under wet and dry conditions , 1988 .

[49]  P. Teng,et al.  Simulation of yield losses caused by rice diseases, insects, and weeds in tropical Asia , 1998 .

[50]  S. Savary,et al.  Analysis of crop loss in the multiple pathosystem groundnut-rust-late leaf spot. I. Six experiments , 1992 .

[51]  Steven B. Johnson,et al.  Development of a simple potato growth model for use in crop-pest management , 1986 .

[52]  Martin J. Kropff,et al.  Relationship between Leaf Photosynthesis and Nitrogen Content of Field-Grown Rice in Tropics , 1995 .

[53]  To Phuc Tuong,et al.  DROUGHT-STRESS RESPONSES OF TWO LOWLAND RICE CULTIVARS TO SOIL WATER STATUS , 1996 .

[54]  H. Berge,et al.  Nitrogen economy of irrigated rice: field and simulation studies. , 1994 .

[55]  M. J. Kropff,et al.  Applications of Systems Approaches at the Field Level , 1997, Systems Approaches for Sustainable Agricultural Development.

[56]  R. Rabbinge,et al.  The ecological background of food production. , 1993, Ciba Foundation symposium.

[57]  C. Spitters,et al.  Weeds: population dynamics, germination and competition , 1989 .

[58]  P. Teng,et al.  Effect of inoculum source on sheath blight ShB development , 1990 .

[59]  J. Zadoks On the conceptual basis of crop loss assessment: the threshold theory , 1985 .

[60]  C. Rappoldt,et al.  The Fortran Simulation Translator FST version 2.0. Introduction and reference manual , 1996 .

[61]  J. O’toole,et al.  Dry matter and grain production of rice, using a line source sprinkler in drought studies , 1980 .

[62]  M. Dingkuhn,et al.  Diurnal and Developmental Changes in Canopy Gas Exchange in Relation to Growth in Transplanted and Direct-Seeded Flooded Rice , 1990 .

[63]  Serge Savary,et al.  A characterisation of rice pests and quantification of yield losses in the rice-wheat system of India , 1997 .

[64]  W.A.H. Rossing,et al.  Mechanisms of damage by stem borer, bacterial leaf blight and sheath blight, and their effects on rice yield : proceedings of workshops in Khon Kaen, Thailand, 3 - 5 August 1992, and Cuttack, India, 3 - 5 March 1993 , 1993 .

[65]  B. Graf,et al.  A simulation model for the dynamics of rice growth and development: Part I—The carbon balance , 1990 .