A health condition model for wind turbine monitoring through neural networks and proportional hazard models

In this article, a parametric model for health condition monitoring of wind turbines is developed. The study is based on the assumption that a wind turbine’s health condition can be modeled through three features: rotor speed, gearbox temperature and generator winding temperature. At first, three neural network models are created to simulate normal behavior of each feature. Deviation signals are then defined and calculated as accumulated time-series of differences between neural network predictions and actual measurements. These cumulative signals carry health condition–related information. Next, through nonlinear regression technique, the signals are used to produce individual models for considered features, which mathematically have the form of proportional hazard models. Finally, they are combined to construct an overall parametric health condition model which partially represents health condition of the wind turbine. In addition, a dynamic threshold for the model is developed to facilitate and add more insight in performance monitoring aspect. The health condition monitoring of wind turbine model has capability of evaluating real-time and overall health condition of a wind turbine which can also be used with regard to maintenance in electricity generation in electric power systems. The model also has flexibility to overcome current challenges such as scalability and adaptability. The model is verified in illustrating changes in real-time and overall health condition with respect to considered anomalies by testing through actual and artificial data.

[1]  Lu Wang,et al.  Reliability estimation and remaining useful lifetime prediction for bearing based on proportional hazard model , 2015 .

[2]  Mahmood Shafiee,et al.  Optimal Redundancy and Maintenance Strategy Decisions for Offshore Wind Power Converters , 2015 .

[3]  Peter Tavner,et al.  Reliability analysis for wind turbines , 2007 .

[4]  Peter de B. Harrington Sigmoid transfer functions in backpropagation neural networks , 1993 .

[5]  Zijun Zhang,et al.  Performance optimization of wind turbines , 2012 .

[6]  D.,et al.  Regression Models and Life-Tables , 2022 .

[7]  Peter Tavner,et al.  Automated on-line fault prognosis for wind turbine pitch systems using supervisory control and data acquisition. , 2015 .

[8]  A. Immanuel Selvakumar,et al.  A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques , 2014 .

[9]  Michael Wilkinson,et al.  Comparison of methods for wind turbine condition monitoring with SCADA data , 2014 .

[10]  Bo-Suk Yang,et al.  Machine performance degradation assessment and remaining useful life prediction using proportional hazard model and support vector machine , 2012, WCE 2010.

[11]  A. Vaccaro,et al.  An optimised methodology to predict the wind farms production , 2015, 2015 International Conference on Clean Electrical Power (ICCEP).

[12]  Wei Qiao,et al.  A Survey on Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis—Part II: Signals and Signal Processing Methods , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[13]  H. Louie,et al.  Probabilistic Modeling and Statistical Characteristics of Aggregate Wind Power , 2014 .

[14]  Xiao Lei,et al.  A generalized model for wind turbine anomaly identification based on SCADA data , 2016 .

[15]  Xueliang Ping,et al.  Sequential Fuzzy Diagnosis Method for Motor Roller Bearing in Variable Operating Conditions Based on Vibration Analysis , 2013, Sensors.

[16]  Martin Fodslette Meiller A Scaled Conjugate Gradient Algorithm for Fast Supervised Learning , 1993 .

[17]  Chris J. Wild,et al.  Computational Methods for Nonlinear Least Squares , 2005 .

[18]  Cynthia Rudin,et al.  The latent state hazard model, with application to wind turbine reliability , 2015 .

[19]  Zhigang Tian,et al.  Condition based maintenance optimization for multi-component systems using proportional hazards model , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[20]  Lina Bertling Tjernberg,et al.  Cost efficient maintenance strategies for wind power systems using LCC , 2014, 2014 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS).

[21]  Meik Schlechtingen,et al.  Wind turbine condition monitoring based on SCADA data using normal behavior models. Part 2: Application examples , 2014, Appl. Soft Comput..

[22]  Keith Worden,et al.  A Performance Monitoring Approach for the Novel Lillgrund Offshore Wind Farm , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[23]  Peter Tavner,et al.  Wind turbine downtime and its importance for offshore deployment. , 2011 .

[24]  D. Coronado,et al.  CONDITION MONITORING OF WIND TURBINES : STATE OF THE ART , USER EXPERIENCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS Project Report , 2015 .

[25]  Mohammad Jafari Jozani,et al.  Wind Turbine Power Curve Modeling Using Advanced Parametric and Nonparametric Methods , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[26]  Nadège Bouchonneau,et al.  A review of wind turbine bearing condition monitoring: State of the art and challenges , 2016 .

[27]  Fang Fang,et al.  Dynamic evaluation of wind turbine health condition based on Gaussian mixture model and evidential reasoning , 2013 .

[28]  Eduard Muljadi,et al.  A condition monitoring system for wind turbine generator temperature by applying multiple linear regression model , 2013, 2013 North American Power Symposium (NAPS).

[29]  Lina Bertling,et al.  An Approach for Condition-Based Maintenance Optimization Applied to Wind Turbine Blades , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[30]  Caichao Zhu,et al.  Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines , 2018, Stability Control and Reliable Performance of Wind Turbines.

[31]  Yaguo Lei,et al.  Health condition identification of multi-stage planetary gearboxes using a mRVM-based method , 2015 .

[32]  Fouad Slaoui-Hasnaoui,et al.  Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring: State-of-the-Art Review, New Trends, and Future Challenges , 2014 .

[33]  Jason R. Marden,et al.  A data-driven model for wind plant power optimization by yaw control , 2014, 2014 American Control Conference.

[34]  Jason R. Marden,et al.  Wind plant power optimization through yaw control using a parametric model for wake effects—a CFD simulation study , 2016 .

[35]  Meik Schlechtingen,et al.  Comparative analysis of neural network and regression based condition monitoring approaches for wind turbine fault detection , 2011 .

[36]  Lance Manuel,et al.  PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND TURBINE FATIGUE LOADS FOR DESIGN , 2000 .

[37]  Peyman Mazidi,et al.  A performance and maintenance evaluation framework for wind turbines , 2016, 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS).

[38]  E. Kaplan,et al.  Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations , 1958 .

[39]  Miguel A. Sanz-Bobi,et al.  A comparative study of techniques utilized in analysis of wind turbine data , 2016, 2016 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CICED).

[40]  T. Ekelund,et al.  Modeling and control of variable-speed wind-turbine drive-system dynamics , 1995 .

[41]  Andrew Kusiak,et al.  On-line monitoring of power curves , 2009 .

[42]  K. Fischer,et al.  A Model for the Optimization of the Maintenance Support Organization for Offshore Wind Farms , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[43]  Miguel A. Sanz-Bobi,et al.  Failure Risk Indicators for a Maintenance Model Based on Observable Life of Industrial Components With an Application to Wind Turbines , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[44]  Lina Bertling Tjernberg,et al.  An Artificial Neural Network Approach for Early Fault Detection of Gearbox Bearings , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid.

[45]  Diego Galar,et al.  Estimation of the Reliability of Rolling Element Bearings Using a Synthetic Failure Rate , 2016 .

[46]  Wei Qiao,et al.  A Survey on Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis—Part I: Components and Subsystems , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[47]  Miguel Ángel Sanz Bobi,et al.  SIMAP: Intelligent System for Predictive Maintenance: Application to the health condition monitoring of a windturbine gearbox , 2006 .

[48]  L. Bertling,et al.  Maintenance Management of Wind Power Systems Using Condition Monitoring Systems—Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Two Case Studies , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.