Body Mass Index-Related Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Heterogeneity in Obesity Paradox Studies: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis

Objective We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies to quantify the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods We included studies assessing the impact of BMI on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Data were combined using a random-effects dose-response model. Results Sixteen cohort studies on all-cause mortality (n = 445,125) and two studies on cardiovascular mortality (n = 92,841) were evaluated in the meta-analysis. A non-linear association was observed between BMI and all-cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. With a BMI nadir of 28–30 kg/m2, the risk of all-cause mortality displayed a U-shaped increase. With a BMI nadir of 29–31 kg/m2, the risk of cardiovascular mortality exhibited a gradual non-linear increase for BMI > 31 kg/m2. Subgroup analyses suggested that study location, diabetes duration, and smoking history may have contributed to heterogeneity among the studies. Conclusions An obesity paradox exists for patients with type 2 diabetes with respect to all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Study location, diabetes duration, and smoking history might contribute to heterogeneity among obesity paradox studies of patients with type 2 diabetes.

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