Relational Model of Accidents and Vessel Traffic Using AIS Data and GIS: A Case Study of the Western Port of Shenzhen City

Following the growth in global trade activities, vessel traffic has increased dramatically in some busy waterways and ports. However, such increments have made it more complex to manage the regional vessel traffic, which can increase the risk of an accident in the area. To model and analyze the relationship between vessel traffic and maritime traffic, this paper proposes a gridded geography information system (GIS)-based relation analysis model using the historical automatic identification system (AIS) data and accident records over a 10-year-span. Firstly, the extent of the hazards posed by a maritime accident in terms of hull loss, fatality, and direct economic loss is quantified using set pair analysis. Consequently, the hazardous degree posed by an accident is obtained. The relative consequence of the regional hazard (RCORH) is then estimated by summing up all the relative hazardous degrees of accidents that have occurred in a certain gridded area. Secondly, the vessel traffic in the gridded areas is analyzed using characteristics such as speed, heading variance, and traffic volume as indicators. Based on the analysis of both the maritime traffic accidents and the vessel traffic, the spatial relationships are analyzed with an overlay between the RCORH and vessel traffic data of each grid, as well as a regression analysis. In a case study of the Western port of Shenzhen City, China, the methodology proves to be effective for vessel traffic management and traffic engineering design.