ARAC Modeling of the Algeciras, Spain Steel Mill CS-137 Release

On 12 June 1998, the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) learned from news reports about the accidental release of cesium-137 from a steel mill near Algeciras, Spain. We used the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) gridded data for meteorological input into our diagnostic models. To better resolve near-release location and coastal meteorological conditions, we blended four days of WMO surface and upper air observations with the gridded data. Our calculations showed the plume initially traveled eastward over the Mediterranean Sea, turned northward into central Europe, and was split by the Alps. We determined the timing and amount of cesium released by fitting our modeled air concentrations to the available set of measurements. Accuracy statistics from a small set of ratios of measured to computed air concentrations paired in space and time were similar to those achieved from larger data sets in previous ARAC model evaluation studies on the continental scale.