Future scenarios for the derivation of material requirements - the automobile interior 2030

The automotive industry experiences an enormous change. Tightening CO2 regulations, a shift of the industry’s gravity center, resource scarcity and the emerging phenomenon of car sharing are just some of the developments that result in an uncertain environment. An important topic that has not been addressed yet and that will be strongly influenced by these developments is the future interior of the automobile and the requirements that will be opposed to the material embedded in it. Investing in the research for future materials for the interior contains high level of risks because the researchers are missing the crystal ball that would tell which are the most relevant issues to research. Therefore recognizes the Daimler AG, a German multinational automotive cooperation, the need to closely examine social, technological, ecological, economic and political factors that influence the development of the automobile interior in order to derive future material requirements and to recommend areas for particular attention and potential investment for new research projects in the field of automotive interior design, which will be addressed by the first central research question: Central question 1: The development of which material research areas will be crucial during the next 18 years in the automobile interior design? Currently, the research department “Interior materials, manufacturing and concepts” mainly bases its research strategy on the suggestions of employees and suppliers and has no systematic process to identify material requirements in the long-term. The department would like to apply a process that is particularly useful in a turbulently changing environment and that enables to derive future material requirements in the automobile interior and the identification of materials that fulfill them. Therefore, a second central research question is formulated: Central question 2: Which scenario method enables a derivation of future material requirements in the automobile interior and the identification of materials that fulfill those requirements? The first central research question has three subquestions that must be answered before the central question can be addressed: Subquestion 1: Which key factors in the environment have an impact on the automobile interior design of the future and which possible developments of these factors are expected till 2030? Subquestion 2: What are internally consistent, plausible, and challenging alternative scenarios of the automobile interior environment 2030? Subquestion 3: Which future requirements for the material applied in the automobile interior can be derived from the scenarios?