Non-neutralized Electric Currents in Solar Active Regions and Flare Productivity

We explore the association of non-neutralized currents with solar flare occurrence in a sizable sample of observations, aiming to show the potential of such currents in solar flare prediction. We used the high-quality vector magnetograms that are regularly produced by the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager, and more specifically, the Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP). Through a newly established method that incorporates detailed error analysis, we calculated the non-neutralized currents contained in active regions (AR). Two predictors were produced, namely the total and the maximum unsigned non-neutralized current. Both were tested in AR time-series and a representative sample of point-in-time observations during the interval 2012 – 2016. The average values of non-neutralized currents in flaring active regions are higher by more than an order of magnitude than in non-flaring regions and correlate very well with the corresponding flare index. The temporal evolution of these parameters appears to be connected to physical processes, such as flux emergence and/or magnetic polarity inversion line formation, that are associated with increased solar flare activity. Using Bayesian inference of flaring probabilities, we show that the total unsigned non-neutralized current significantly outperforms the total unsigned magnetic flux and other well-established current-related predictors. It therefore shows good prospects for inclusion in an operational flare-forecasting service. We plan to use the new predictor in the framework of the FLARECAST project along with other highly performing predictors.

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