Comparison of Factorial and Scenario Analysis Methods for Assessing Uncertainty in the Design of Permeable Reactive Barriers

The method chosen to incorporate uncertainty into remediation design can have a significant effect on the feasibility and potential success of a remediation project. Three methods for analyzing uncertainty are explored to better allow their application to optimization of remediation designs: scenario analysis combined with one-way sensitivity analysis, factorial analysis, and fractional factorial analysis. The three methods are analyzed using a deterministic optimization model for design of a permeable reactive barrier (PRB) to remediate nitrate contamination. Although the combined scenario/one-way sensitivity approach is simpler than the factorial approaches, it has the comparative disadvantage of missing potentially important interactions between design inputs. Fractional factorial analysis is shown to have the added advantage of being useful in screening the importance of a number of model inputs without a large number of computer experiments. Hypothetical examples highlight the likely importance of uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity when choosing the optimal PRB design specification and the potential interaction of this input and the incoming pollutant concentration.

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