Effects of climatic change on trees from cool and temperate regions: an ecophysiological approach to modelling of bud burst phenology

A framework is presented for modelling bud burst phenology of trees from the cool and temperate regions. Three ecophysiological aspects affecting the timing of bud burst are considered: (i) effects of environmental factors on the rest status of the bud, (ii) effect of rest status on the ability for bud burst, and (iii) direct effect of air temperature on the rate of development towards bud burst. Any model for bud burst phenology can be presented within the framework with three submodels, each of them addressing one of the corresponding three ecophysiological aspects. A total of 96 hypothetical models were synthesized by combining submodels presented in the literature. The models were tested in two experiments with saplings of Pinus sylvestris L. growing in experimental chambers at their natural site in eastern Finland. In the first experiment, air temperature and (or) concentration of atmospheric CO2 was elevated. Elevation of the air temperature hastened bud burst, whereas elevation of the concentration...

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