Extreme Value Analysis of Dynamical Wave Climate Projections in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract A dynamical downscaling approach is used for the projection of the Mediterranean wave climate under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B (SRES). Two classical approaches of extreme value analysis, that is the Block Maxima and the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) methods, are implemented for the estimation of the return values of significant wave heights at four open-sea sites. These methods are applied to the climatic timeseries spanning over 2001-2100 and compared to hindcast simulations for years 1950-2000. Results show a general reduction of extreme events at central locations of the Algerian and Levantine basins while slightly increased extreme activity is observed in the climatic projections of Tyrrhenian and Ionian locations.

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