Estimation and projection of the HIV epidemic trend among the migrant population in China.

OBJECTIVE The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China. Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population. METHODS The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China. RESULTS The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075% (95% CI: 0.042%, 0.108%) in China. The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years, with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110% (95% CI: 0.070%, 0.150%) by 2015. CONCLUSION Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic, it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years. Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population.

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