A Bayesian Modelling of Wildfires in Portugal

In the last decade wildfires became a serious problem in Portugal due to socieconomic and climate change trends. In order to analyse wildfire data, we employ beta regression for modelling the proportion of burned wild area, under a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to find out fire risk factors that influence the proportion of area burned and what may make a wild area susceptible or resistant to fire. Then, we analyse wildfire data in Portugal during 1990–1994 through Bayesian normal and beta regression models that use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimating quantities of interest.

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