Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold‐Smoked Salmon: I. Quantitative Exposure Assessment

A quantitative assessment of the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon (CSS) consumption in France is developed. The general framework is a second-order (or two-dimensional) Monte Carlo simulation, which characterizes the uncertainty and variability of the exposure estimate. The model takes into account the competitive bacterial growth between L. monocytogenes and the background competitive flora from the end of the production line to the consumer phase. An original algorithm is proposed to integrate this growth in conditions of varying temperature. As part of a more general project led by the French Food Safety Agency (Afssa), specific data were acquired and modeled for this quantitative exposure assessment model, particularly time-temperature profiles, prevalence data, and contamination-level data. The sensitivity analysis points out the main influence of the mean temperature in household refrigerators and the prevalence of contaminated CSS on the exposure level. The outputs of this model can be used as inputs for further risk assessment.

[1]  Maarten Nauta,et al.  Separation of uncertainty and variability in quantitative microbial risk assessment models. , 2000 .

[2]  Hong Yang,et al.  Consumer Phase Risk Assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in Deli Meats , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[3]  L. Laloux,et al.  Effect of temperature, water-phase salt and phenolic contents on Listeria monocytogenes growth rates on cold-smoked salmon and evaluation of secondary models. , 2006, International journal of food microbiology.

[4]  H Christopher Frey,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis of a Two‐Dimensional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model Using Analysis of Variance , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[5]  R. Spear,et al.  Integrating uncertainty and interindividual variability in environmental risk assessment. , 1987, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[6]  Jean-Baptiste Denis,et al.  Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[7]  R. Lindqvist,et al.  Quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in smoked or gravad salmon and rainbow trout in Sweden. , 2000, International journal of food microbiology.

[8]  H. Huss,et al.  Prevalence and growth of Listeria monocytogenes in naturally contaminated seafood. , 1998, International journal of food microbiology.

[9]  J Olley,et al.  Relationship between temperature and growth rate of bacterial cultures , 1982, Journal of bacteriology.

[10]  P. Velge,et al.  Modification of a virulence‐associated phenotype after growth of Listeria monocytogenes on food , 2006, Journal of applied microbiology.

[11]  Isabelle Albert,et al.  Estimation of uncertainty and variability in bacterial growth using Bayesian inference. Application to Listeria monocytogenes. , 2003, International journal of food microbiology.

[12]  S. Sandberg,et al.  Impact of Microbial Ecology of Meat and Poultry Products on Predictions from Exposure Assessment Scenarios for Refrigerated Storage , 2003, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[13]  J. Denis,et al.  Uncertainty Distribution Associated with Estimating a Proportion in Microbial Risk Assessment , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  R. Bell,et al.  Growth of the psychrotrophic pathogens Aeromonas hydrophila, Listeria monocytogenes and Yersinia enterocolitica on smoked blue cod (Parapercis colias) packed under vacuum or carbon dioxide , 2007 .

[15]  J. Rocourt,et al.  Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods: the FAO/WHO approach. , 2003, FEMS immunology and medical microbiology.

[16]  R. Iman,et al.  A distribution-free approach to inducing rank correlation among input variables , 1982 .

[17]  B. F. Vogel,et al.  Control options for Listeria monocytogenes in seafoods. , 2000, International journal of food microbiology.

[18]  M. Catteau,et al.  Behavior of Listeria spp. in smoked fish products affected by liquid smoke, NaCl concentration, and temperature. , 1998, Journal of food protection.

[19]  E. Skjerve,et al.  Risk factors for contamination of smoked salmon with Listeria monocytogenes during processing. , 1997, International journal of food microbiology.

[20]  Jean-Baptiste Denis,et al.  A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Waterborne Cryptosporidiosis in France Using Second‐Order Monte Carlo Simulation , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[21]  C. Fermanian,et al.  Improved in vitro detection of hemolysin BL from Bacillus cereus , 2000 .

[22]  M. Uyttendaele,et al.  Prevalence of Salmonella in poultry carcasses and their products in Belgium. , 1998, International journal of food microbiology.

[23]  K. Krist,et al.  The use of predictive microbiology by the Australian meat industry. , 2002, International journal of food microbiology.

[24]  M. Delignette-Muller,et al.  Biological variability and exposure assessment. , 2000, International journal of food microbiology.

[25]  B. Lombard,et al.  A contribution to the improvement of Listeria monocytogenes enumeration in cold-smoked salmon. , 2004, International journal of food microbiology.

[26]  P Dalgaard,et al.  Predictive modelling of the growth and survival of Listeria in fishery products. , 2000, International journal of food microbiology.

[27]  E. Derens,et al.  Statistical modelling of cold-smoked salmon temperature profiles for risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes , 2005 .

[28]  Frédéric Carlin,et al.  A retail and consumer phase model for exposure assessment of Bacillus cereus. , 2003, International journal of food microbiology.

[29]  C. Pin,et al.  Predictive models as means to quantify the interactions of spoilage organisms. , 1998, International journal of food microbiology.

[30]  G. Salvat,et al.  Prevalence and growth of Listeria monocytogenes in naturally contaminated cold‐smoked salmon , 2007, Letters in applied microbiology.

[31]  J. V. Van Impe,et al.  Reflections on the use of robust and least-squares non-linear regression to model challenge tests conducted in/on food products. , 2005, International journal of food microbiology.

[32]  U. Purvis,et al.  Current microbiological status of 'health foods' sold in Canada. , 1998, Journal of food microbiology.

[33]  P Dalgaard,et al.  Predicted and observed growth of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood challenge tests and in naturally contaminated cold-smoked salmon. , 1998, International journal of food microbiology.

[34]  H. Christopher Frey,et al.  Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood‐Based Approaches , 1999 .