Improving the Analog Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasts for Rare Events

AbstractAn analog-based ensemble technique, the analog ensemble (AnEn), has been applied successfully to generate probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables, wind and solar power, energy...

[1]  Stefano Alessandrini,et al.  A novel application of an analog ensemble for short-term wind power forecasting , 2015 .

[2]  Thomas M. Hamill,et al.  Analog Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using GEFS Reforecasts and Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analyses* , 2015 .

[3]  Constantin Junk,et al.  Predictor-weighting strategies for probabilistic wind power forecasting with an analog ensemble , 2015 .

[4]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity with an Analog Ensemble , 2018, Monthly Weather Review.

[5]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Post-processing techniques and principal component analysis for regional wind power and solar irradiance forecasting , 2016 .

[6]  L. D. Monache,et al.  An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast , 2015 .

[7]  G. Brier.  VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .

[8]  M. Benini,et al.  Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers , 2014 .

[9]  Xuguang Wang,et al.  A Comparison of Breeding and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Ensemble Forecast Schemes , 2003 .

[10]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Gridded probabilistic weather forecasts with an analog ensemble , 2017 .

[11]  H. Hersbach.  Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems , 2000 .

[12]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  An Evaluation of Analog-Based Postprocessing Methods across Several Variables and Forecast Models , 2015 .

[13]  Thomas M. Hamill,et al.  Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Reforecast Analogs: Theory and Application , 2006 .

[14]  F. Anctil,et al.  Why Should Ensemble Spread Match the RMSE of the Ensemble Mean , 2014 .

[15]  A. H. Murphy.  A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score , 1973 .

[16]  James M. Wilczak,et al.  PM 2.5 analog forecast and Kalman filter post-processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model , 2015 .

[17]  Thomas M. Hopson,et al.  Assessing the Ensemble Spread–Error Relationship , 2014 .

[18]  T. Hamill.  Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts , 2001 .

[19]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Statistical Downscaling of a High-Resolution Precipitation Reanalysis Using the Analog Ensemble Method , 2017 .

[20]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble , 2017 .

[21]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Deterministic Wind Speed Predictions with Analog-Based Methods over Complex Topography , 2018, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

[22]  H. M. van den Dool,et al.  A New Look at Weather Forecasting through Analogues , 1989 .

[23]  H. Glahn,et al.  The Use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) in Objective Weather Forecasting , 1972 .

[24]  Jeffrey L. Anderson.  A Method for Producing and Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts from Ensemble Model Integrations , 1996 .

[25]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Probabilistic Weather Prediction with an Analog Ensemble , 2013 .