A statistical analysis of well production rates from UK oil and gas fields: implications for carbon capture and storage

The number of wells required to dispose of global CO2 emissions by injection into geological formations is of interest as a key indicator of feasible deployment rate, scale and cost. Estimates have largely been driven by forecasts of sustainable injection rate from mathematical modelling of the CO2 injection process. Recorded fluid production rates from oil and gas fields can be considered an observable analogue in this respect. The article presents statistics concerning Cumulative average Bulk fluid Production (CBP) rates per well for 104 oil and gas fields from the UK offshore region. The term bulk fluid production is used here to describe the composite volume of oil, gas and water produced at reservoir conditions. Overall, the following key findings are asserted: (1) CBP statistics for UK offshore oil and gas fields are similar to those observed for CO2 injection projects worldwide. (2) 50% probability of non-exceedance (PNE) for CBP for oil and gas fields without water flood is around 0.35 Mt/yr/well of CO2 equivalent. (3) There is negligible correlation between reservoir transmissivity and CBP. (4) Study of net and gross CBP for water flood fields suggest a 50% PNE that brine co-production during CO2 injection could lead to a 20% reduction in the number of wells required.

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