论文信息 - Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world

Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world

Abstract An algorithm for intermediate-term earthquake prediction is suggested which allows diagnosis of the times of increased probability of strong earthquakes (TIPs). TIPs are declared for the time period of one year and an area with linear dimensions of a few hundred kilometers, and can be extended in time. The algorithm is based on the following traits of an earthquake flow: level of seismic activity; its temporal variation; clustering of earthquakes in space and time; their concentration in space; and their long-range interaction. The algorithm is normalized so that it can be applied in various regions without readaptation. TIPs, diagnosed by the algorithm, precede ∼ 80% of strong earthquakes and take on average ∼ 24% of the total time.

Vladimir I. Keilis-borok | Irina M. Rotwain | V. Keilis-Borok | I. Rotwain

[1] Frank Press,et al. Pattern recognition applied to earthquake epicenters in California , 1976 .

[2] L. Demany,et al. Rhythm perception in early infancy , 1977, Nature.

[3] John W. Tukey,et al. Exploratory Data Analysis. , 1979 .

[4] C. R. Allen,et al. Intermediate-term prediction of occurrence times of strong earthquakes , 1988, Nature.

[5] A. Gabrielov,et al. Algorithms of long - term earthquakes'prediction , 1986 .

[6] B. Gutenberg,et al. Seismicity of the Earth and associated phenomena , 1950, MAUSAM.

[7] L. Knopoff,et al. Bursts of aftershocks, long-term precursors of strong earthquakes , 1980, Nature.

[8] F. Evison,et al. Fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes , 1977, Nature.