Predicting road crashes from a mathematical model of alertness regulation--The Sleep/Wake Predictor.

Sleepiness is related to factors such as the time of day, the time since awakening and the duration of prior sleep. The present study investigated whether actual road crashes could be predicted from a mathematical model based on these three factors (the Sleep/Wake Predictor-SWP). Data were derived from a population-based case-control study of serious injury crashes. Data on accident time (or control sampling time) and start and end of prior sleep were entered into the model (blind). The predicted sleepiness values were used in logistic regressions. The results showed a highly significant odds ratio (OR)=1.72 (confidence interval=1.41-2.09) for each incremental step of sleepiness on the output sleepiness scale (nine steps). There was also a significant interaction with blood alcohol level, showing high OR values for high sleepiness levels and alcohol levels above 50 mg% (0.05 g/dl). It was concluded that the model is a good predictor of road crashes beyond that of alcohol level, and that interaction between the two carries a very high risk.

[1]  A. Borbély.  A two process model of sleep regulation. , 1982, Human neurobiology.

[2]  T. Åkerstedt,et al.  Sleep and sleepiness in young individuals with high burnout scores. , 2004, Sleep.

[3]  T. Åkerstedt,et al.  Accounting for Partial Sleep Deprivation and Cumulative Sleepiness in the Three‐Process Model of Alertness Regulation , 2008, Chronobiology international.

[4]  Hans P A Van Dongen.  Comparison of mathematical model predictions to experimental data of fatigue and performance. , 2004, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[5]  D. Dinges,et al.  Summary of the key features of seven biomathematical models of human fatigue and performance. , 2004, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[6]  Andrew J Belyavin,et al.  Modeling performance and alertness: the QinetiQ approach. , 2004, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[7]  Jane C. Stutts,et al.  WHY DO PEOPLE HAVE DROWSY DRIVING CRASHES? INPUT FROM DRIVERS WHO JUST DID , 1999 .

[8]  T. Balkin,et al.  Fatigue models for applied research in warfighting. , 2004, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[9]  T. Åkerstedt,et al.  Validation of the S and C components of the three-process model of alertness regulation. , 1995, Sleep.

[10]  T. Åkerstedt.  Work hours, sleepiness and accidents Introduction and summary , 1995 .

[11]  P. Achermann,et al.  Changes of sleep EEG slow‐wave activity in response to sleep manipulations: to what extent are they related to changes in REM sleep latency? , 1995, Journal of sleep research.

[12]  R. Norton,et al.  Driver sleepiness and risk of serious injury to car occupants: population based case control study , 2002, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[13]  Björn Peters,et al.  Subjective sleepiness and accident risk avoiding the ecological fallacy , 2006, Journal of sleep research.

[14]  J. Horne,et al.  Early evening low alcohol intake also worsens sleepiness‐related driving impairment , 2005, Human psychopharmacology.

[15]  J. Horne,et al.  Driver sleepiness , 1995, Journal of sleep research.

[16]  Adam Fletcher,et al.  A model to predict work-related fatigue based on hours of work. , 2004, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[17]  T. Åkerstedt,et al.  The three-process model of alertness and its extension to performance, sleep latency, and sleep length. , 1997, Chronobiology international.

[18]  T. Åkerstedt,et al.  Subjective and objective sleepiness in the active individual. , 1990, The International journal of neuroscience.

[19]  Simon Folkard,et al.  Predictions from the three-process model of alertness. , 2004, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[20]  Jennie Connor,et al.  The Contribution of Alcohol to Serious Car Crash Injuries , 2004, Epidemiology.