The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, c1imate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 “macro-regions”. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the c1imate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation.

[1]  D. Tirpak,et al.  Policy options for stabilizing global climate. Draft report to congress. Executive Summary. Draft report , 1989 .

[2]  Mnv,et al.  The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios. Climate change scenarios resulting from runs with several GCMs , 2001 .

[3]  Carolien Kroeze,et al.  Closing the global atmospheric N2O budget: nitrous oxide emissions through the agricultural nitrogen cycle. (OECD/IPCC/IEA Phase II Development of IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). , 1997 .

[4]  E. Matthews,et al.  Global analysis of the potential for N2O production in natural soils , 1993 .

[5]  D. Tirpak,et al.  Policy Options For Stabilizing Global Climate , 1990 .

[6]  美紀子 甲斐沼,et al.  Climate policy assessment : Asia-Pacific integrated modeling , 2003 .

[7]  A. Bouwman,et al.  Testing hypotheses on global emissions of nitrous oxide using atmospheric models , 2000 .

[8]  A. Bondeau,et al.  Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): overview and key results , 1999 .

[9]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 1992 : the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment , 1992 .

[10]  Joanna Isobel House,et al.  Climate change 2001 : synthesis report , 2001 .

[11]  A. Bouwman,et al.  Computing land use emissions of greenhouse gases , 1994 .

[12]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios , 2000 .

[13]  Mnv,et al.  The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios; A comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century , 2001 .

[14]  Andrew J. Weaver.  The Science of Climate Change , 2003 .

[15]  C. Nevison,et al.  Closing the global N2O budget: nitrous oxide emissions through the agricultural nitrogen cycle , 1998, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[16]  R. Leemans,et al.  Global change scenarios of the 21st Century : results from the IMAGE 2.1 model , 1998 .