Cellular automata model for citrus variegated chlorosis.

A cellular automata model is proposed to analyze the progress of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epi- demics in Sao Paulo oranges plantation. In this model epidemiological and environmental features, such as motility of sharpshooter vectors which perform Levy flights, hydric and nutritional level of plant stress and seasonal climatic effects, are included. The observed epidemics data were quantita- tively reproduced by the proposed model varying the parameters controlling vectors motility, plant stress and initial population of diseased plants. Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC) is an economically relevant disease affecting citrus (1). In the Sao Paulo re- gion (Brazil), one of the important citrus growing areas of the world, responsible for about 30% of the world pro- duction, CVC reduces the size and number of fruits by more than 35% (2). CVC is considered to be potentially the most devastating citrus disease and represents the main threat to the Brazilian citrus industry, with annual revenues of the order of 1.2 to 1.4 billions of dollars. The losses associated with the disease are estimated in about 100 millions dollar yearly (1). CVC is caused by a xylem-limited bacterium, Xyl- lela fastidiosa (3), transmitted by xylem feeding, suc- torial sharpshooter leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Cicadelli- dae) (4,5). In Sao Paulo, the species Dilobopterus costal- imai appears to be the most efficient vector for CVC transmission (5). Nowadays, a sweet orange cultivar re- sistant to X. fastidiosa is unknown, and control practices for CVC (bactericidal agents, systematic pruning of in- fected branches, chemical control of vectors, and/or roug- ing of severe affected plants) are expensive, ineffective, or environmentally damaging. Recent studies on various aspects of the epidemiology of CVC ( (1), and references therein) have provided fun- damental information which can be used to develop a cellular automata (CA) model of the pathosystem. CA or other epidemic models could become relevant tools to address numerous practical and experimental questions: forecasting the progress and final intensity of CVC, plan- ning and evaluation of strategies for disease control and determination of the relevant mechanisms involved in the disease spreading. In this paper, we propose a simple CA model to simu- late the CVC progress in which some epidemiological and environmental features, such as vectors motility, plant stress and seasonal modulations are included. The sim- ulational results are compared with the CVC progress curves in time and spatial infection patterns observed in the Sao Paulo region.

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[2]  G. Vojta,et al.  Fractal Concepts in Surface Growth , 1996 .

[3]  C. A. Shull Phytopathology , 1929, Botanical Gazette.

[4]  G. G. Stokes "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[5]  H. Berg Random Walks in Biology , 2018 .

[6]  T. Vicsek Fractal Growth Phenomena , 1989 .