Wind power prediction value of the probability distribution of wind power-based predictive assessment longitudinal time

The present invention discloses a vertical wind power wind power time predictive assessment of the probability distribution based on a predicted value, the following steps: 1) the distribution of the results obtained by fitting the longitudinal time points according to the probability distribution of wind power output values ​​and their probabilities the same time every day function section; 2) time series model autoregressive - moving average model (ARMA model) for the prediction of wind power, thereby obtaining the predicted value; pre-assessment 3) wind power prediction value: probability distribution function of the longitudinal segment determined time probability of occurrence of a predicted value or a predicted value to determine the reliability by providing different confidence levels in order to achieve a pre-evaluation of the predicted value occurs before the true value, we can dispatch department the probability of occurrence of a predicted value and the predicted value confidence reasonable judgment and choice.