Estimating the Relative Impact of Early-Life Infection Exposure on Later-Life Tuberculosis Outcomes in a Canadian Sample

This article seeks to elucidate effects of early-life influences on later-life tuberculosis outcomes using a dynamic computer simulation model. To illustrate the value of such a model, three research questions are considered: 1) If we implemented an intervention capable of reducing infection rates to varying degrees, what would the impact be on tuberculosis prevalence by age? 2) If there were a temporary increase in the rate of infection, what would the impact be on tuberculosis outcomes for the population? 3) If a fixed number of recently infected individuals were targeted for prophylactic treatment, who should be chosen to maximize impact?

[1]  J. Sterman.  Learning from evidence in a complex world. , 2006, American journal of public health.

[2]  Nathaniel D Osgood,et al.  The inter- and intragenerational impact of gestational diabetes on the epidemic of type 2 diabetes. , 2011, American journal of public health.

[3]  J Swanson,et al.  Business Dynamics—Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[4]  Nathaniel D. Osgood,et al.  Using System Dynamics tools to gain insight into intervention options related to the interaction between tobacco and tuberculosis , 2010, Global health promotion.

[5]  Y. Ben-Shlomo,et al.  A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology: conceptual models, empirical challenges and interdisciplinary perspectives. , 2002, International journal of epidemiology.

[6]  H. Ward.  Risk Factors in the progression from tuberculosis infection to disease , 2004 .

[7]  A. Hall,et al.  Life course epidemiology and infectious diseases. , 2002, International journal of epidemiology.

[8]  P E Fine,et al.  Lifetime risks, incubation period, and serial interval of tuberculosis. , 2000, American journal of epidemiology.

[9]  P E Fine,et al.  The natural history of tuberculosis: the implications of age-dependent risks of disease and the role of reinfection , 1997, Epidemiology and Infection.

[10]  M Juchniewicz,et al.  [Epidemiology of tuberculosis]. , 1970, Pielegniarka i polozna.

[11]  Nathaniel D. Osgood,et al.  Developmental Systems Science: Exploring the Application of Systems Science Methods to Developmental Science Questions , 2011 .

[12]  Sandro Galea,et al.  Causal thinking and complex system approaches in epidemiology. , 2010, International journal of epidemiology.

[13]  S. Blower,et al.  The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics , 1995, Nature Medicine.

[14]  J S Koopman,et al.  Individual causal models and population system models in epidemiology. , 1999, American journal of public health.

[15]  S. Blower,et al.  Quantifying the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. , 1998, Theoretical population biology.

[16]  John Fox,et al.  A Life Course Approach to Chronic Disease Epidemiology , 1998, BMJ.

[17]  C. Hertzman.  The Biological Embedding of Early Experience and Its Effects on Health in Adulthood , 1999, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[18]  Meena Kumari,et al.  Lifecourse influences on health among British adults: effects of region of residence in childhood and adulthood. , 2007, International journal of epidemiology.

[19]  G W Comstock,et al.  Epidemiology of tuberculosis. , 1982, The American review of respiratory disease.

[20]  C. Dye,et al.  Consensus statement. Global burden of tuberculosis: estimated incidence, prevalence, and mortality by country. WHO Global Surveillance and Monitoring Project. , 1999, JAMA.

[21]  S. Radhakrishna,et al.  The development of clinical tuberculosis following infection with tubercle bacilli. 1. A theoretical model for the development of clinical tuberculosis following infection, linking from data on the risk of tuberculous infection and the incidence of clinical tuberculosis in the Netherlands. , 1982, Tubercle.

[22]  C. Castillo-Chavez,et al.  A model for tuberculosis with exogenous reinfection. , 2000, Theoretical population biology.

[23]  J. Homer,et al.  System dynamics modeling for public health: background and opportunities. , 2006, American journal of public health.

[24]  Christopher Dye,et al.  Prospects for worldwide tuberculosis control under the WHO DOTS strategy , 1998, The Lancet.

[25]  A. Palloni,et al.  Early life exposure to poor nutrition and infectious diseases and its effects on the health of older Puerto Rican adults. , 2008, The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences.

[26]  D. Strachan,et al.  Life-course influences on health in British adults: effects of socio-economic position in childhood and adulthood. , 2007, International journal of epidemiology.

[27]  S. Ferebee.  Controlled chemoprophylaxis trials in tuberculosis. A general review. , 1970, Bibliotheca tuberculosea.

[28]  P D van Helden,et al.  Exogenous reinfection as a cause of recurrent tuberculosis after curative treatment. , 1999, The New England journal of medicine.

[29]  Ferebee Sh.  Controlled chemoprophylaxis trials in tuberculosis. A general review. , 1970 .

[30]  C S Berkey,et al.  Efficacy of BCG vaccine in the prevention of tuberculosis. Meta-analysis of the published literature. , 1994, JAMA.

[31]  K. Floyd,et al.  The Stop TB Strategy: building on and enhancing DOTS to meet the TB-related Millennium Development Goals. , 2006 .