The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change

In this study, we investigated the impact of future climate change on fire activity in 12 districts across Portugal. Using historical relationships and the HIRHAM (High Resolution Hamburg Model) 12 and 25 km climate simulations, we assessed the fire weather and subsequent fire activity under a 2 × CO2 scenario. We found that the fire activity prediction was not affected by the spatial resolution of the climate model used (12 vs. 25 km). Future area burned is predicted to increase 478% for Portugal as a whole, which equates to an increase from 1.4% to 7.8% of the available burnable area burning annually. Fire occurrence will also see a dramatic increase (279%) for all of Portugal. There is significant spatial variation within these results; the north and central districts of the country generally will see larger increases in fire activity.

[1]  Ana Isabel Miranda,et al.  Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System , 2008 .

[2]  Josep Piñol,et al.  Estimating live fine fuels moisture content using meteorologically-based indices , 2001 .

[3]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21ST Century , 2006 .

[4]  J. Christensen,et al.  A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century , 2007 .

[5]  M. Andreae,et al.  Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning , 2001 .

[6]  Hans Tømmervik,et al.  Prediction of the distribution of Arctic‐nesting pink‐footed geese under a warmer climate scenario , 2007 .

[7]  D. Fox,et al.  The new smoke management , 2001 .

[8]  Marco Bindi,et al.  Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area , 2006 .

[9]  B. M. Wotton,et al.  Climate Change and People-Caused Forest Fire Occurrence in Ontario , 2003 .

[10]  Neville Nicholls,et al.  Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia , 2005 .

[11]  M. Viegas,et al.  A Relationship Between Rainfall and Burned Area for Portugal , 1994 .

[12]  Martin E. Alexander,et al.  Fire, climate change, carbon and fuel management in the Canadian boreal forest , 2001 .

[13]  John E. Walsh,et al.  Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach , 2009 .

[14]  F. D. Santos,et al.  Climate change in portugal scenarios, impacts and adaptation measures : Siam project , 2002 .

[15]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the southeastern Canadian boreal forest , 1995 .

[16]  Roderick R. Riewe,et al.  Resources and Dynamics of the Boreal Zone. , 1984 .

[17]  Kelvin G. Hirsch,et al.  An overview of LEOPARDS: The Level of Protection Analysis System , 1999 .

[18]  J. G. Goldammer,et al.  Smoke-haze pollution: a review of the 1997 episode in Southeast Asia , 2001 .

[19]  D. Williams,et al.  FIRE SEASON SEVERITY RATING , 1959 .

[20]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming , 1998 .

[21]  C. E. Van Wagner,et al.  Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System , 1987 .

[22]  José M. C. Pereira,et al.  Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal , 2005 .

[23]  K. Hirsch,et al.  Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959-1999 , 2001 .

[24]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Future Area Burned in Canada , 2005 .

[25]  C. Borrego,et al.  Forest fire emissions in Portugal: a contribution to global warming? , 1994, Environmental pollution.

[26]  Yves Bergeron,et al.  Role of vegetation and weather on fire behavior in the Canadian mixedwood boreal forest using two fire behavior prediction systems. , 2001 .

[27]  Ana Isabel Miranda,et al.  Smoke measurements during Gestosa-2002 experimental field fires , 2005 .

[28]  Mike D. Flannigan,et al.  Climate, Weather, and Area Burned , 2001 .

[29]  Francisco Moreira,et al.  Temporal (1958–1995) pattern of change in a cultural landscape of northwestern Portugal: implications for fire occurrence , 2001, Landscape Ecology.

[30]  L. Mearns,et al.  Climate Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal Forests , 1998 .

[31]  C. Huntingford,et al.  Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink , 2007, Nature.

[32]  T. Brown,et al.  The Impact of Twenty-First Century Climate Change on Wildland Fire Danger in the Western United States: An Applications Perspective , 2004 .

[33]  C. Borrego,et al.  Climate Change and Fire Weather Risk , 2001 .

[34]  Camia Andrea,et al.  Forest Fires in Europe 2009 , 2007 .

[35]  Juli G. Pausas.  Changes in Fire and Climate in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin) , 2004 .

[36]  P. Crutzen,et al.  Biomass Burning in the Tropics: Impact on Atmospheric Chemistry and Biogeochemical Cycles , 1990, Science.

[37]  James B. Harrington,et al.  A Study of the Relation of Meteorological Variables to Monthly Provincial Area Burned by Wildfire in Canada (1953–80) , 1988 .

[38]  Domingos Xavier Viegas,et al.  Moisture Content of Fine Forest Fuels and Fire Occurrence in Central Portugal , 1992 .

[39]  Tom Beer,et al.  Estimating australian forest fire danger under conditions of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations , 1995 .

[40]  Mike D. Flannigan,et al.  Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest , 2009 .

[41]  S. Schneider,et al.  Climate Change 2007 Synthesis report , 2008 .

[42]  M. Hulme,et al.  A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas , 2002 .

[43]  E. Mills,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfire Severity: A Regional Forecast for Northern California , 2004 .

[44]  Linda O. Mearns,et al.  Analysis of daily variability of precipitation in a nested regional climate model: comparison with observations and doubled CO2 results , 1995 .

[45]  Richard G. Jones,et al.  An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate , 2007 .

[46]  D. X. Viegas,et al.  Calibração do Sistema Canadiano de Perigo de Incêndio para Aplicação em Portugal , 2004 .

[47]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Climate change and forest fires. , 2000, The Science of the total environment.

[48]  C. E. V. Wagner,et al.  Conversion of Williams' severity rating for use with the fire weather index. , 1970 .

[49]  M. Flannigan,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRE IN CANADA , 1991 .

[50]  Giovanni Bovio,et al.  Comparative study of various methods of fire danger evaluation in southern Europe , 1994 .