Vessel Collision Frequency Estimation in the Singapore Strait

This paper aims to estimate Vessel Collision Frequency in the Singapore Strait. This frequency is obtained as the product of the number of Vessel Conflicts and the causation probability using the real-time vessel movement data from the Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit (Lloyd’s MIU) database. The results show that the container carriers have the highest Vessel Collision Frequency while Roll-On Roll-Off (RORO) and passenger ships have the lowest frequency. Tankers cause the highest head-on collision frequency. In the Singapore Strait, the most risky overtaking area is between longitudes 103°48′E and 104°12′E. The most risky head-on area is between longitudes 103°50′E and 104°00′E while the majority of crossing collisions occur between longitudes 103°50′E and 104°12′E. The Vessel Collision Frequency is found to be 1·75 per year in the traffic lanes. Currently, westbound traffic in the Strait is more risky than eastbound traffic (the number of westbound collisions in July was 0·0991 while the number of eastbound collisions was 0·0470). Furthermore, the estimated Vessel Collision Frequency during the day is less than that at night. The results of this paper could be beneficial for the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore to further enhance the navigational safety strategies implemented in the Singapore Strait. 1. INTRODUCTION. The Singapore Strait is a 105 kilometre long strait between the Strait of Malacca in the west and the South China Sea in the east. It links one of the largest ports to the rest of the world and has a high density of vessel traffic. More than 200 vessels pass through the Strait on a daily basis and this gives an annual throughput of approximately 70,000 vessels, carrying 80% of the oil transported to Northeast Asia, as well as one third of the world’s traded goods including Chinese manufactures, Indonesian coffee etc. Although the Singapore Strait is of great importance to the global economy (Wang and Meng, 2011; Qu and Meng, 2012), it is not deep enough for some of the largest vessels (mostly oil tankers). The Strait also has substantial sections of narrower and shallower shipping lanes. At Philips Channel, it narrows to 2·8 kilometres wide, with 2·1 kilometres in the shipping lanes, creating one of the world’s chokepoints. Therefore, the navigational safety of vessels through the