Ex post assessment methods of climate forecast impacts

While a considerable body of literature has grown around the ex ante assessment of the value of climate forecast information, relatively little has been applied to ex post analyses. Using the literature that assesses the impact of agricultural research and extension as a starting point, our paper suggests advancements in survey design, data collection, econometric methodology and project eval- uation that can improve ex post impact assessment of climate forecast information. We also empha- size the need to better integrate economic theory with empirical methodology, so as to account for behavioral dynamics and the presence of rigidities and fixities facing economic agents and food pro- duction systems. Through these types of advances in theoretical and empirical modeling, researchers will be better equipped to conduct ex post impact assessment and more accurately measure the value of the climate forecast information reaching the agricultural producer.

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