A structure of models for future projections of environmental pressure due to consumption

Abstract A model structure for constructing consumption scenarios and determining the related energy requirement of the inhabitants of the Netherlands has recently been developed at the RIVM. Consumption is considered in the model structure to be influenced by economic growth, demographic changes, sociocultural developments, technological enhancement and policy measures. The structure includes and connects several models, which also operate stand-alone. An important model in the system is the so-called central unit, which has two functions: (1) dealing with the consistency between income developments and microeconomic developments on household expenditure derived from the other models in the system, and (2) the broader function, the construction of consumption scenarios on the basis of income elasticities. These elasticities (relationship between income and expenditure) depend on the circumstances of a household, such as its size, new products, and prevailing standards and values in the society. These circumstances change in the course of time, causing the income elasticities to change as well. The central unit constructs scenarios of consumption based on the influence of these circumstances on the expenditure of households. In the central unit, consumer activities and underlying parameters are integrated into a matrix with domains of consumption, e.g. food, housing and holidays, represented by rows and means of consumption, e.g. products and mobility, by columns. Developments in consumption are related to direct energy use (e.g. petrol, electricity) and indirect energy embedded in goods and services.