The Impact of Eastwards Enlargement of the EU on Non-applicant and Delayed-Accession Countries*

The issue of EU enlargement has spawned a large number of studies of the impact, in macroeconomic and microeconomic terms, of the accession of new members to the Union. These studies have ranged widely, from conventional estimates of trade creation effects to more speculative assessments of the likely impact of enlargement in terms of patterns of business networking and regional development. But they have focused almost exclusively on the impact of enlargement on the existing EU, and on the candidate countries themselves. This study seeks to redress the balance by concentrating on the impact of EU enlargement on the great bulk of the transition region which will remain outside the EU for the foreseeable future.