A Physics-Based Alternative to Cost-Per-Flying-Hour Models of Aircraft Consumption Costs

Abstract : Data from Operation Desert Storm shows that current aircraft consumption models based upon a historical Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH) are grossly inaccurate in predicting consumption cost during wartime surges. This report proposes an alternative to CPFH-based models that considers other parameters that drive consumption costs, namely time on the ground, sorties, and landings. We tested the model using C-5B transport data from Operation Desert Storm, and verified it using C- 17 transport, KC-10 all-purpose tanker, and F-16 fighter data from recent years, which includes Kosovo operations. Our investigation shows that this physics-based model is at least as accurate as the CPFH-based model in the general case, is far more accurate during wartime surges, and is generally more robust than the CPFH-based model. We also found that the physics-based model can be feasibly implemented and used by United States Air Force analysts.