Psychological dynamics are complex: A comparison of scaling, variance, and dynamic complexity in simulated and observed data

The behavior of complex systems is often unpredictable, not because it is random, but because its current behavior depends on a unique history of interactions with its internal and external environment. Therefore, studying snapshots of the behavior of a complex system in a static manner, or, relying on the laws of probability to generate expectations of future behavior will be generally uninformative. In order to predict where a complex system might be going, one needs a record of where it has been.

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