Effects of Air Traffic Geometry on Pilots' Conflict Detection with Cockpit Display of Traffic Information

We explored the effects of conflict geometry on pilot conflict understanding, manifested in estimation accuracy of three continuous variables: miss distance, time to closest point of approach, and orientation at the closest point of approach. Results indicated (a) increased difficulty of understanding with conflicts that occurred with slower speeds, a longer time into the future, and a longer distance into the future; (b) a tendency for pilots' judgments often to be conservative, judging that conflicts were both more risky and would occur sooner than was actually the case; and (c) a “distance-over-speed” bias, such that two aircraft viewed farther apart and converging rapidly were perceived as less risky than two aircraft that were closer to each other and converging at a slower rate, even though the time until a conflict occurred was identical.