Uncertainty based operating strategy selection in combined heat and power systems

Abstract Combined heat and power (CHP) research has focused on optimizing the operation of CHP systems based on various criteria, such as cost savings, energy usage, or emissions. In literature, different operating strategies, such as base loading (BL), following electric load (FEL), and following thermal load (FTL), of a CHP system are typically compared and the best operation strategy selected based on the desired optimized parameter. To date, a literature survey indicates that the uncertainties associated with these calculations have not been considered in the operating strategy selection process. Therefore, this study considers the uncertainties in the cost savings associated with operating the CHP system under BL, FEL, and FTL operating strategies. Modular uncertainty analysis techniques are used to compare the uncertainties associated with the cost savings of the different operating modes. Results indicate that, due to overlapping uncertainty bands, the choice between different CHP operating strategies cannot always be clearly determined for power generation units with nominal sizes less than approximately 60% of the building's maximum electric load. In such cases, the choice between CHP operating strategies may be decided based on ease of implementation and operation.