How to Build Major Transport Infrastructure Projects within Budget, in Time and with the Expected Output; a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature on factors which help to realise major transport infrastructure projects within the forecasted budget, schedule and with the expected output. The most mentioned factors overall are as follows: (1) improving the cost and benefit estimates of projects, (2) containing the risks involved in these projects, (3) increasing accountability and (4) maintaining clear scope and objectives. Statistical research, in particular, focuses on these particular factors, but different research methodologies produce different results. Research based on case studies and interviews does not discuss accountability at all, while literature reviews and discussions show a remarkable focus on this specific factor. Furthermore, there is variety in the factors mentioned in papers investigating cost overruns, schedule overruns or output shortfalls. Overall, the research in this field focuses on failure within major transport infrastructure projects. These results show that a framework for building major transport infrastructure projects within budget, in time and with the expected output is emerging, but that more research is needed using multivariate analyses. Also, more research focusing on projects which have actually achieved their forecasts is needed.

[1]  B. Flyvbjerg,et al.  Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition , 2004, Perspectives on Politics.

[2]  Matti Siemiatycki,et al.  Academics and Auditors , 2009 .

[3]  Chi Ming Tam,et al.  Build-operate-transfer model for infrastructure developments in Asia: reasons for successes and failures , 1999 .

[4]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects? , 2004, 1304.4476.

[5]  Bent Flyvbjerg,et al.  Cost Overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness , 2010, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research.

[6]  Mendel Giezen,et al.  Keeping it simple? A case study into the advantages and disadvantages of reducing complexity in mega project planning , 2012 .

[7]  Hugo Priemus,et al.  Development and Design of Large Infrastructure Projects: Disregarded Alternatives and Issues of Spatial Planning , 2007 .

[8]  Samuel Labi,et al.  Three-Stage Least-Squares Analysis of Time and Cost Overruns in Construction Contracts , 2010 .

[9]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects? , 2003 .

[10]  Samuel Labi,et al.  An Analysis of Cost Overruns and Time Delays of INDOT Projects , 2004 .

[11]  Bent Flyvbjerg Why Mass Media Matter to Planning Research , 2012 .

[12]  Jin-Kyung Lee,et al.  Cost Overrun and Cause in Korean Social Overhead Capital Projects: Roads, Rails, Airports, and Ports , 2008 .

[13]  B. Flyvbjerg,et al.  Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects , 2012, 1307.2179.

[14]  Michael Batty Great Planning Disasters , 2013 .

[15]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie? , 2002, 1303.6604.

[16]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts , 2006 .

[17]  Sebastian Morris,et al.  Cost and Time Overruns in Public Sector Projects , 2005 .

[18]  D. Pickrell A Desire Named Streetcar Fantasy and Fact in Rail Transit Planning , 1992 .

[19]  John Preston,et al.  Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal , 1998 .

[20]  Bent Flyvbjerg,et al.  From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right , 2006, ArXiv.

[21]  N. Mansfield,et al.  Causes of delay and cost overruns in Nigerian construction projects , 1994 .

[22]  Peter W. G. Morris,et al.  The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management , 1988 .

[23]  Eric Molin,et al.  Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases , 2012 .

[24]  Bent Flyvbjerg,et al.  Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning , 2004 .

[25]  Anton de Wit,et al.  Measurement of project success , 1988 .

[26]  Terry Cooke-Davies,et al.  The “real” success factors on projects , 2002 .

[27]  B. Flyvbjerg Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling , 2005, 1303.7401.

[28]  Bent Flyvbjerg,et al.  Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures , 2005, 1303.7400.

[29]  Martin Wachs,et al.  Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy , 1990 .

[30]  Mette K. Skamris,et al.  Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects , 1997 .

[31]  Decision-making on Mega-projects: Drifting on Political Discontinuity and Market Dynamics , 2010 .

[32]  James Odeck,et al.  Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants? , 2004 .