Competitive diffusion of personal computer shipments in Taiwan

Abstract In this work, we explore the innovative growth of personal computer (PC) shipments from Taiwan. Using a revised Lotka–Volterra model, we estimate marketing diffusion by considering competition between desktop computers (DTs) and notebook computers (NBs). The parameters in the Lotka–Volterra model are calibrated with realistic shipment data by using ordinary least square estimation. The time trajectories of DT and NB shipments are then obtained numerically. We analyze the dynamic process of competitive relationship between the shipments of DTs and NBs. Comparisons between the well-known Bass growth model and the revised Lotka–Volterra model are also drawn. In addition, we also make an equilibrium analysis to see the character of the corresponding equilibrium point. Our research shows that there exhibits a prey–predator relationship between DT and NB products from the viewpoint of ecology. In management implication, we show how the competing interplay among the three factors of natural growth, niche capacity and interaction drives the growth of products of DTs and NBs. We also find that there exists a stable equilibrium state showing the growth–decline–plateau type of product life cycle for both DT and NB products from Taiwan, and giving an interpretation of migrating their manufacturing operations to Mainland China.

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