Directionality of transitions in space: Diverging trajectories of electric mobility and autonomous driving in urban and rural settlement structures

Abstract How does the spatial context shape early innovation trajectories and how will this influence the directionality of transitions? We elaborate these questions for the case of transitions in personal mobility, focusing on emerging trajectories of electric vehicles and autonomous driving. We analyze how the dynamics depend on whether innovation and transition strategies are primarily geared towards urban or rural contexts. In order to identify potentially diverging trajectories, we specify socio-technical regime structures at two levels: the level of service regimes (i.e. rules that relate to specific means of transport, like the car) and the level of the sectoral regime (i.e. rules that regulate the interplay between the different service regimes). We will show that depending on whether the early innovation strategies are oriented at rural or urban contexts, quite different directionalities can result both regarding the technological trajectory of the new service option, but also regarding the overall sector configuration.