PREDICTION OF LONG‐DISTANCE DISPERSAL USING GRAVITY MODELS: ZEBRA MUSSEL INVASION OF INLAND LAKES

Gravity models are commonly used by geographers to predict migration and interaction between populations and regions. Even though rarely used by ecologists, gravity models allow estimation of long-distance dispersal between discrete points in heterogeneous landscapes. We developed a production-constrained gravity model to forecast zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) dispersal into inland lakes of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin (USA) based on the site and location of lakes and the number and location of boats within 364 counties. A deterministic form of this model was used to estimate best-fit parameters for distance coefficient, Great Lakes boat-ramp attractiveness, and colonization cutoff threshold. A stochastic model thus developed from these parameters allows for random changes in colonization likelihood. The results of our model are highly correlated with the actual pattern of colonized lakes in southern Michigan and southeastern Wisconsin at the end of 1997. Areas of central Wisconsin and...

[1]  J. G. Skellam.  Random dispersal in theoretical populations , 1951, Biometrika.

[2]  R. Webster,et al.  Optimal interpolation and isarithmic mapping of soil properties. II. Block kriging. , 1980 .

[3]  Total Alkalinity of Surface Waters—A National Map , 1983 .

[4]  H. G. Baker.  Patterns of Plant Invasion in North America , 1986 .

[5]  Morton E. O'Kelly,et al.  Spatial Interaction Models:Formulations and Applications , 1988 .

[6]  Summer total phosphorus in lakes: A map of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, USA , 1988 .

[7]  Simon A. Levin,et al.  A Theoretical Framework for Data Analysis of Wind Dispersal of Seeds and Pollen , 1989 .

[8]  Rob Hengeveld,et al.  Dynamics of Biological Invasions , 1989 .

[9]  P. Hebert,et al.  Ecological and Genetic Studies on Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas): a New Mollusc in the Great Lakes , 1989 .

[10]  David L. Strayer,et al.  Projected Distribution of the Zebra Mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, in North America , 1991 .

[11]  Monica G. Turner,et al.  Quantitative methods in landscape ecology : the analysis and interpretation of landscape heterogeneity , 1991 .

[12]  Ronald W. Griffiths,et al.  Distribution and dispersal of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in the Great Lakes region , 1991 .

[13]  F. Sklar,et al.  The development of dynamic spatial models for landscape ecology: a review and prognosis , 1991 .

[14]  D. Padilla,et al.  Models to Predict Potential Occurrence and Density of the Zebra Mussel, Dreissena polymorpha , 1992 .

[15]  J. Leach,et al.  Mapping the Potential Spread of the Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in Ontario , 1992 .

[16]  S. Levin.  The problem of pattern and scale in ecology , 1992 .

[17]  D. Padilla,et al.  Geographic spread of exotic species: Ecological lessons and opportunities from the invasion of the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha , 1996 .

[18]  D. Padilla,et al.  Predicting the Spread of Zebra Mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) to Inland Waters Using Boater Movement Patterns , 1996 .

[19]  Ann,et al.  Colonization of host patches following long-distance dispersal by a goldenrod beetle, Trirhabda virgata , 1996 .

[20]  J. Carlton,et al.  Post‐Establishment Spread in Large‐Scale Invasions: Dispersal Mechanisms of the Zebra Mussel Dreissena Polymorpha , 1996 .

[21]  M. Baguette,et al.  Dispersal, colonization power and metapopulation structure in the vulnerable butterfly Proclossiana eunomia (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae) , 1996 .

[22]  N. Shigesada,et al.  Biological Invasions: Theory and Practice , 1997 .

[23]  R. Hilborn,et al.  The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data , 1997 .

[24]  Peter Kareiva,et al.  Spatial ecology : the role of space in population dynamics and interspecific interactions , 1998 .

[25]  P. Turchin.  Quantitative Analysis Of Movement , 1998 .

[26]  Mark A. Lewis,et al.  3. Variability, Patchiness, and J u m p Dispersal i n the Spread of an Invading Population , 1998 .

[27]  Kevin S. Cummings,et al.  A Transportation Model Assessment of the Risk to Native Mussel Communities from Zebra Mussel Spread , 1998 .

[28]  W. Richard,et al.  Space invaders: modelling the distribution, impacts and control of alien organisms. , 1998, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[29]  S. L. Lima,et al.  SEARCH STRATEGIES FOR LANDSCAPE‐LEVEL INTERPATCH MOVEMENTS , 1999 .

[30]  D. Padilla,et al.  ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF LONG-DISTANCE OVERLAND DISPERSAL OF INVADING AQUATIC SPECIES , 1999 .

[31]  P. White,et al.  The distance decay of similarity in biogeography and ecology , 1999 .

[32]  C. Kraft,et al.  Regional differences in rates and patterns of North American inland lake invasions by zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) , 2000 .

[33]  Richard C. Stedman,et al.  Distribution of Recreational Boating across Lakes: Do Landscape Variables Affect Recreational Use? , 2000 .

[34]  Anthony Ricciardi,et al.  Overland dispersal of aquatic invasive species: a risk assessment of transient recreational boating. , 2001 .