Scenario analysis and management options for sustainable river basin management: Application of the Elbe DSS

We developed a decision support system (DSS) for sustainable river basin management in the German Elbe catchment (~100,000km^2), called Elbe-DSS. The system integrates georeferenced simulation models and related data sets with a user friendly interface and includes a library function. Design and content of the DSS have been developed in close cooperation with end users and stakeholders. The user can evaluate effectiveness of management actions like reforestation, improvement of treatment plant technology or the application of buffer strips under the influence of external constraints on climate, demographic and agro-economic changes to meet water management objectives such as water quality standards and discharge control. The paper (i) describes the conceptual design of the Elbe-DSS, (ii) demonstrates the applicability of the integrated catchment model by running three different management options for phosphate discharge reduction (reforestation, erosion control and ecological-farming) under the assumption of regional climate change based on IPCC scenarios, (iii) evaluates the effectiveness of the management options, and (iv) provides some lessons for the DSS-development in similar settings. The georeferenced approach allows the identification of local inputs in sub-catchments and their impact on the overall water quality, which helps the user to prioritize his management actions in terms of spatial distribution and effectiveness.

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