Kenya at the demographic turning point? Hypotheses and a proposed research agenda.

An analysis of the determinants and consequences of rapid population growth in Kenya represents an encounter in contrast and paradox. On the one hand, no country in Africa has had a longer tradition of concern about rapid population growth. Yet, the apparent record of achievement in population programming has been disappointing. On the other hand, in spite of concerns by Kenyan and World leaders about population growth that have sometimes reached alarmist proportions, this nation has been able to accommodate a high rate of population increase, although not without considerable effort and cost. This report examines these paradoxes by analyzing the manner in which Kenya has confronted its unusual demographic situation. It speculates why, now a quarter of a century after Independence, Kenya's demography may be entering a new phase of declining growth rates. The record of population change in Kenya is examined, and as an overlay to the demography, aspects of the way in which the Kenyan economy has performed, has accommodated, and has been influenced by rapid population growth is also presented. The interactions of population with the economy and how they have been conditioned by population policies and programming are summarized and recommendations are provided.